Alpha Metallurgical Resources Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| AMR Stock | USD 321.71 11.29 3.39% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your slightly conservative level of risk, our recommendation regarding Alpha Metallurgical Resources is 'Strong Sell'. Macroaxis provides Alpha Metallurgical buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AMR positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Alpha Metallurgical's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Alpha Metallurgical's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 257.39 | Target Price 223 | Hype Value 321.42 | Market Value 321.71 | Naive Value 298.8 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Alpha Metallurgical Resources given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Alpha Metallurgical. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Alpha Metallurgical Resources, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Alpha |
Execute Alpha Metallurgical Buy or Sell Advice
The Alpha recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Alpha Metallurgical Resources. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Alpha Metallurgical Resources or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Alpha Metallurgical's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Sell
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Almost neglects market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Inapplicable | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Alpha Metallurgical Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Alpha Metallurgical generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alpha Metallurgical has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Alpha Metallurgical is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Alpha Metallurgical has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Coterra Energy Gains But Lags Market What You Should Know |
Alpha Metallurgical Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Alpha Metallurgical's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Alpha Metallurgical's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Alpha Metallurgical daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Alpha Metallurgical Resources price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Alpha Metallurgical returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Alpha Metallurgical.
| Mean Return | -0.26 | Value At Risk | -5.76 | Potential Upside | 4.03 | Standard Deviation | 3.94 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Alpha Metallurgical historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Alpha Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Alpha Metallurgical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alpha Metallurgical Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Alpha Metallurgical's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Alpha Metallurgical's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 250.5 K | Jpmorgan Chase & Co | 2023-12-31 | 225.4 K | Alta Fundamental Advisers Llc | 2023-12-31 | 196.1 K | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 152.7 K | Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | 2023-12-31 | 142.9 K | T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. | 2023-12-31 | 142.6 K | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2023-12-31 | 134.8 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2023-12-31 | 128.8 K | Amvescap Plc. | 2023-12-31 | 125.7 K | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 2 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.2 M |
Alpha Metallurgical Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (40.7M) | 48.7M | (21.3M) | (63.2M) | (27.9M) | (26.5M) | |
| Change In Cash | (129.6M) | (103.1M) | (62.0M) | 172.8M | (58.2M) | (55.3M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | (60.5M) | (24.8M) | 91.6M | 1.3B | 634.0M | 665.7M | |
| Depreciation | 315.1M | 161.5M | 123.3M | 127.1M | 170.9M | 313.7M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 305.7M | 342.2M | 45.0M | 50.1M | 24.2M | 23.0M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 192.4M | 154.0M | 83.3M | 164.3M | 245.4M | 155.9M | |
| Net Income | (316.3M) | (446.9M) | 288.8M | 1.4B | 722.0M | 758.1M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 347.7M | 244.6M | 182.6M | 355.4M | 268.2M | 236.0M | |
| Investments | (2.7M) | (210.0M) | (4.7M) | (329.4M) | (273.4M) | (259.8M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (26.3M) | (22.2M) | (125.8M) | (450.6M) | (405.6M) | (385.3M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 370.5M | 351.4M | 2.7M | 6.4M | 7.3M | 6.9M |
Alpha Metallurgical Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Alpha Metallurgical or Metals & Mining sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Alpha Metallurgical's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Alpha stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.25 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.22 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Alpha Metallurgical Volatility Alert
Alpha Metallurgical Resources exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.75 and kurtosis of 6.3. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Alpha Metallurgical's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Alpha Metallurgical's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Alpha Metallurgical Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Alpha Metallurgical's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Alpha Metallurgical's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Alpha Metallurgical and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Alpha Metallurgical or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Alpha Metallurgical's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alpha Metallurgical by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Alpha Metallurgical to competition |
| Fundamentals | Alpha Metallurgical | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.48 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.23 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.21 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.22 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 3.96 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 13.01 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 11.20 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 90.09 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.4 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 2.10 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 2.71 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 1.23 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 3.47 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 1.82 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 1.03 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 721.96 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 301.91 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 25.37 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 14.41 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 3.36 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 121.64 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 879.41 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 4.03 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 49.30 X | 3.12 X |
| Target Price | 374.0 | |
| Number Of Employees | 4.16 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.4 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 4.22 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 2.41 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 1.97 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 738.37 M | 1.48 B |
| Current Asset | 435.66 K | 9.34 B |
Note: Bona fide gift to David Stetson of 2000 shares of Alpha Metallurgical subject to Section 16 [view details]
Alpha Metallurgical Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Alpha . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0485 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.71) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 322.01 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 321.91 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 16.01 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (5.94) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (11.29) |
About Alpha Metallurgical Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Alpha Metallurgical Resources? Buying financial instruments such as Alpha Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 448.6M | 11.0M | 14.4M | 13.7M | Total Assets | 1.9B | 2.3B | 2.4B | 2.1B |
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Check out Alpha Metallurgical Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
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Is Alpha Metallurgical's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alpha Metallurgical. If investors know Alpha will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alpha Metallurgical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | Dividend Share 1.94 | Earnings Share 49.3 | Revenue Per Share 246.087 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.166 |
The market value of Alpha Metallurgical is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alpha that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alpha Metallurgical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alpha Metallurgical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alpha Metallurgical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alpha Metallurgical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alpha Metallurgical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alpha Metallurgical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alpha Metallurgical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.