Alliance Resource Partners Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

ARLP Stock  USD 20.19  0.22  1.10%   
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Alliance Resource Partners is 'Strong Sell'. Macroaxis provides Alliance Resource buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding ARLP positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Alliance Resource's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Alliance Resource's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
16.85
Target Price
28.67
Hype Value
20.19
Market Value
20.19
Naive Value
19.8
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Alliance Resource Partners given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Alliance Resource. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Alliance Resource Partners, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Alliance Resource Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Alliance and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Alliance Resource Partners. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of economic analysis.

Execute Alliance Resource Buy or Sell Advice

The Alliance recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Alliance Resource Partners. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Alliance Resource Partners or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Alliance Resource's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Alliance ResourceBuy Alliance Resource
Strong Sell

Market Performance

Very WeakDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

StaleDetails

Current Valuation

OvervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Moves indifferently to market movesDetails

Investor Sentiment

ImpartialDetails

Analyst Consensus

Strong BuyDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

UnavailableDetails
For the selected time horizon Alliance Resource Partners has a Mean Deviation of 1.17, Semi Deviation of 1.65, Standard Deviation of 1.58, Variance of 2.51, Downside Variance of 3.13 and Semi Variance of 2.71
Our investment recommendation module complements current analysts and expert consensus on Alliance Resource. It analyzes the firm potential to grow using all fundamental, technical, and market related data available at the time. To make sure Alliance Resource is not overpriced, please confirm all Alliance Resource fundamentals, including its price to earning, debt to equity, market capitalization, as well as the relationship between the ebitda and earnings per share . Given that Alliance Resource has a price to book of 1.40 X, we suggest you to validate Alliance Resource Partners market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Alliance Resource Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Alliance Resource generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 30.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
On 14th of February 2024 Alliance Resource paid $ 0.7 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Alliance Resource Partners Transitioning Story Might Yield Great Results - Seeking Alpha

Alliance Resource Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Alliance Resource's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Alliance Resource's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Alliance Resource daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Alliance Resource Partners price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Alliance Resource returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Alliance Resource.
Mean Return
0.10
Value At Risk
-2.24
Potential Upside
2.50
Standard Deviation
1.58
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Alliance Resource historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Alliance Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Alliance Resource is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alliance Resource Partners backward and forwards among themselves. Alliance Resource's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Alliance Resource's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Raymond James Finl Svs Advisors, Inc.2023-12-31
348.2 K
Hightower Advisors, Llc2023-12-31
312.5 K
Adams Asset Advisors Llc2023-12-31
307.4 K
Fairbanks Capital Management, Inc.2023-12-31
286.4 K
First Trust Advisors L.p.2023-12-31
279.6 K
Prescott Group Capital Management Llc2023-12-31
263.1 K
Full Sail Capital, Llc2023-12-31
252.2 K
Keybank National Association2023-12-31
200.8 K
Crescent Grove Advisors, Llc2023-12-31
169.5 K
Magnolia Group, Llc2023-12-31
3.2 M
Progeny 3, Inc.2023-12-31
2.6 M
Note, although Alliance Resource's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Alliance Resource Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change In Cash(207.7M)19.1M66.8M173.6M(236.2B)(224.4B)
Free Cash Flow209.0M279.5M302.2M505.4M451.3M236.9M
Other Non Cash Items(162.4M)13.9M4.0M22.9M39.9B41.9B
Capital Expenditures305.9M121.1M123.0M286.4M379.3M207.6M
Net Income406.9M(129.1M)178.8M577.2M630.1M661.6M
Change To Inventory(35.1M)30.5M(4.7M)(20.1M)33.3M35.0M
Dividends Paid278.4M51.8M52.2M190.8M(364.6M)(346.4M)
End Period Cash Flow36.5M55.6M122.4M296.0M59.8B62.8B
Depreciation312.2M464.5M254.8M273.8M268.0M213.0M
Net Borrowings122.3M(191.8M)(161.5M)(16.1M)(14.5M)(13.7M)
Change To Netincome108.0M529.7M(14.3M)212.7M191.4M205.9M
Investments136.8M988K(142.7M)(403.3M)(559.7M)(531.7M)

Alliance Resource Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Alliance Resource or Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Alliance Resource's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Alliance stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.10
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.1
σ
Overall volatility
1.58
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

Alliance Resource Volatility Alert

Alliance Resource Partners has relatively low volatility with skewness of -0.62 and kurtosis of 1.48. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Alliance Resource's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Alliance Resource's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Alliance Resource Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Alliance Resource's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Alliance Resource's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Alliance Resource and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Alliance Resource or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Alliance Resource's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alliance Resource by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Alliance Resource to competition
FundamentalsAlliance ResourcePeer Average
Return On Equity0.36-0.31
Return On Asset0.15-0.14
Profit Margin0.25 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.18 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation2.85 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding128.06 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders30.11 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions18.59 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted4.24 M4.71 M
Price To Earning7.18 X28.72 X
Price To Book1.40 X9.51 X
Price To Sales1.01 X11.42 X
Revenue2.57 B9.43 B
Gross Profit1.01 B27.38 B
EBITDA940.38 M3.9 B
Net Income630.12 M570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents278.47 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share2.19 X5.01 X
Total Debt350.82 M5.32 B
Debt To Equity0.30 %48.70 %
Current Ratio2.34 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share14.43 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations830.64 M971.22 M
Short Ratio7.38 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share4.81 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth(1.04) X4.89 X
Target Price26.0
Number Of Employees3.6 K18.84 K
Beta1.19-0.15
Market Capitalization2.58 B19.03 B
Total Asset2.79 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings577.42 M9.33 B
Working Capital288.65 M1.48 B
Note: Acquisition by Woodward D Andrew of 27500 shares of Alliance Resource at 20.58 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Alliance Resource Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Alliance . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Alliance Resource Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Alliance Resource Partners? Buying financial instruments such as Alliance Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total450.7M434.3M350.8M512.4M
Total Assets2.2B1.0B2.8B1.5B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Alliance Resource in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Run Convertibles Funds Thematic Idea Now

Convertibles Funds
Convertibles Funds Theme
Funds or Etfs that invest in debt that is expected to be converted into a predetermined amount of the company equity at some future date. The Convertibles Funds theme has 12 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Convertibles Funds Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Alliance Resource is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Alliance Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Alliance Resource Partners Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Alliance Resource Partners Stock:
Check out Alliance Resource Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

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Is Alliance Resource's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alliance Resource. If investors know Alliance will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alliance Resource listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.45)
Dividend Share
2.8
Earnings Share
4.81
Revenue Per Share
20.182
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.11)
The market value of Alliance Resource is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alliance that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alliance Resource's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alliance Resource's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alliance Resource's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alliance Resource's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alliance Resource's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alliance Resource is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alliance Resource's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.