Aspen Aerogels Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| ASPN Stock | USD 16.64 0.01 0.06% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your typical level of risk aversion, our recommendation regarding Aspen Aerogels is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Aspen Aerogels buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding ASPN positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Aspen Aerogels' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Aspen Aerogels' buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 18.21 | Target Price 21 | Hype Value 16.26 | Market Value 16.64 | Naive Value 14.19 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Aspen Aerogels given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Aspen Aerogels. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Aspen Aerogels, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Aspen |
Execute Aspen Aerogels Buy or Sell Advice
The Aspen recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Aspen Aerogels. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Aspen Aerogels or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Aspen Aerogels' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | OK | Details | |
Volatility | Somewhat reliable | Details | |
Hype Condition | Over hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Hyperactively responds to market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Frail | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Inapplicable | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Aspen Aerogels Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Aspen Aerogels appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 238.72 M. Net Loss for the year was (45.81 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.98 M. | |
| Aspen Aerogels currently holds about 102.4 M in cash with (42.61 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.59. | |
| Aspen Aerogels has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: 10 Stocks You Should Not Buy According to Jim Cramer |
Aspen Aerogels Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Aspen Aerogels' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Aspen Aerogels' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Aspen Aerogels daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Aspen Aerogels price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Aspen Aerogels returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Aspen Aerogels.
| Mean Return | 0.60 | Value At Risk | -4.93 | Potential Upside | 7.50 | Standard Deviation | 4.56 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Aspen Aerogels historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Aspen Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Aspen Aerogels is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aspen Aerogels backward and forwards among themselves. Aspen Aerogels' institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Aspen Aerogels' securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Encompass Capital Advisors Llc | 2023-12-31 | 2 M | Ameriprise Financial Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.8 M | Aigh Capital Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 1.8 M | Royce & Associates, Lp | 2023-12-31 | 1.7 M | Telemark Asset Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 1.5 M | Frontier Capital Management Co Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.5 M | State Street Corporation | 2023-12-31 | 1.3 M | Federated Hermes Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.2 M | Nuveen Asset Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 1.1 M | Kim, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 15.8 M | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 4.1 M |
Aspen Aerogels Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (1.5M) | (4.3M) | 1.1M | (10.6M) | (16.7M) | (15.8M) | |
| Change In Cash | 306K | 12.9M | 60.1M | 206.0M | (142.6M) | (135.5M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | (3.2M) | (13.3M) | (32.4M) | (272.4M) | (218.1M) | (207.2M) | |
| Depreciation | 10.2M | 10.2M | 9.4M | 9.2M | 18.2M | 10.7M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 947K | 980K | 1.6M | 7.9M | 22.2M | 23.3M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 2.1M | 3.4M | 13.8M | 178.0M | 175.5M | 184.2M | |
| Net Income | (14.6M) | (21.8M) | (37.1M) | (82.7M) | (45.8M) | (48.1M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 3.6M | 16.5M | 76.6M | 282.6M | 140.0M | 147.0M | |
| Investments | (2.1M) | (3.4M) | (13.8M) | 2.7M | (206.3M) | (196.0M) | |
| Change Receivables | (6.7M) | 16.2M | (4.6M) | (37.0M) | (33.3M) | (31.7M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (1.1M) | 536K | 90.3M | (185K) | (212.8K) | (202.1K) | |
| Change To Netincome | 3.8M | 5.3M | 3.0M | 9.5M | 8.6M | 5.5M |
Aspen Aerogels Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Aspen Aerogels or Energy Equipment & Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Aspen Aerogels' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Aspen stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.36 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.69 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Aspen Aerogels Volatility Alert
Aspen Aerogels shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Aspen Aerogels' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Aspen Aerogels' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Aspen Aerogels Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Aspen Aerogels' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Aspen Aerogels' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Aspen Aerogels and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Aspen Aerogels or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Aspen Aerogels' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aspen Aerogels by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Aspen Aerogels to competition |
| Fundamentals | Aspen Aerogels | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -0.0979 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.0457 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0.19) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.02 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 1.27 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 76.76 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.63 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 98.37 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 4.59 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | (4.28) X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 2.50 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 5.12 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 238.72 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 4.98 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | (31.03 M) | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (45.81 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 102.4 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 2.59 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 138.77 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.68 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.93 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 6.38 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | (42.61 M) | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 4.66 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (0.66) X | 3.12 X |
| Target Price | 20.3 | |
| Number Of Employees | 548 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.96 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 1.28 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 703.05 M | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (673.6 M) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 188.24 M | 1.48 B |
| Current Asset | 61.65 M | 9.34 B |
Note: Acquisition by Virginia Johnson of 8032 shares of Aspen Aerogels subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Aspen Aerogels Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Aspen . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Aspen Aerogels Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Aspen Aerogels? Buying financial instruments such as Aspen Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 15.2M | 126.7M | 138.8M | 145.7M | Total Assets | 183.0M | 646.6M | 703.0M | 738.2M |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Aspen Aerogels in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Sport Products Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Aspen Aerogels Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. To learn how to invest in Aspen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aspen Aerogels guide.You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Complementary Tools for Aspen Stock analysis
When running Aspen Aerogels' price analysis, check to measure Aspen Aerogels' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aspen Aerogels is operating at the current time. Most of Aspen Aerogels' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aspen Aerogels' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aspen Aerogels' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aspen Aerogels to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aspen Aerogels' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspen Aerogels. If investors know Aspen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspen Aerogels listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.66) | Revenue Per Share 3.438 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.413 | Return On Assets (0.05) | Return On Equity (0.1) |
The market value of Aspen Aerogels is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspen Aerogels' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspen Aerogels' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspen Aerogels' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspen Aerogels' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspen Aerogels' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aspen Aerogels is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspen Aerogels' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.