Avadel Pharmaceuticals Plc Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| AVDL Stock | USD 17.66 0.43 2.38% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Avadel Pharmaceuticals buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AVDL positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Avadel Pharmaceuticals' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Avadel Pharmaceuticals' buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 18.2 | Target Price 19.89 | Hype Value 17.72 | Market Value 17.66 | Naive Value 19.28 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Avadel Pharmaceuticals. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Avadel |
Execute Avadel Pharmaceuticals Buy or Sell Advice
The Avadel recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Avadel Pharmaceuticals' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Cautious Hold
Market Performance | OK | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Under hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Frail | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Inapplicable | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Avadel Pharmaceuticals had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 27.96 M. Net Loss for the year was (160.28 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 16.59 M. | |
| Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC currently holds about 104.12 M in cash with (132.87 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.74. | |
| Avadel Pharmaceuticals has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 64.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: 106,475 Shares in Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc Purchased by Investors Asset Management of ... - MarketBeat |
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Avadel Pharmaceuticals' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Avadel Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Avadel Pharmaceuticals daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Avadel Pharmaceuticals returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Avadel Pharmaceuticals.
| Mean Return | 0.35 | Value At Risk | -4.48 | Potential Upside | 6.32 | Standard Deviation | 3.61 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Avadel Pharmaceuticals historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Avadel Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Avadel Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC backward and forwards among themselves. Avadel Pharmaceuticals' institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Avadel Pharmaceuticals' securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 974.5 K | Samsara Biocapital, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 967.5 K | Tri Locum Partners Lp | 2023-12-31 | 839.9 K | Balyasny Asset Management Llc | 2023-12-31 | 781.5 K | Mpm Oncology Impact Management Lp | 2023-12-31 | 665 K | Kennedy Capital Management Inc | 2023-12-31 | 645.9 K | Renaissance Technologies Corp | 2023-12-31 | 625.1 K | Knoll Capital Management Lp | 2023-12-31 | 600 K | Modera Wealth Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 598.4 K | Hhg Plc | 2023-12-31 | 11.1 M | Rtw Investments, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 6.9 M |
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | 1.2M | (1.4M) | (2.8M) | (30K) | (9.5M) | (9.1M) | |
| Change In Cash | 449K | 61.9M | (21.0M) | 23.3M | (42.8M) | (40.7M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | (38.4M) | (48.8M) | (77.3M) | (71.0M) | (132.9M) | (126.2M) | |
| Depreciation | 2.5M | 1.7M | 815K | 1.5M | 1.8M | 1.7M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (4.0M) | (44.9M) | 2.3M | 8.1M | 50.4M | 52.9M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 20.2M | 29K | 98K | 26K | 716K | 0.0 | |
| Net Income | (33.2M) | 7.0M | (77.3M) | (137.5M) | (160.3M) | (152.3M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 9.8M | 71.7M | 50.7M | 74.0M | 31.2M | 28.3M | |
| Investments | 38.6M | (95.1M) | 40.5M | 79.7M | (50.1M) | (47.6M) | |
| Change To Netincome | (6.1M) | (50.1M) | (5.5M) | 35.1M | 31.6M | 33.2M | |
| Change Receivables | 3.1M | 3.5M | 2.5M | 8.3M | 9.5M | 10.0M |
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Avadel Pharmaceuticals or Pharmaceuticals sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Avadel Pharmaceuticals' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Avadel stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.21 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.51 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.64 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Volatility Alert
Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.07 and Jensen Alpha of 0.21. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Avadel Pharmaceuticals' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Avadel Pharmaceuticals' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Avadel Pharmaceuticals Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Avadel Pharmaceuticals' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Avadel Pharmaceuticals' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Avadel Pharmaceuticals and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Avadel Pharmaceuticals or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Avadel Pharmaceuticals' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Avadel Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Avadel Pharmaceuticals to competition |
| Fundamentals | Avadel Pharmaceuticals | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -4.81 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.58 | -0.14 |
| Operating Margin | (1.28) % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 1.57 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 90.58 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 4.89 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 63.81 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 10.39 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 61.46 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 16.52 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 51.79 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 27.96 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 16.59 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | (136.08 M) | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (160.28 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 104.12 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 1.74 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 35.38 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 2.63 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 2.72 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 0.98 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | (132.87 M) | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 6.47 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (2.00) X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 0.07 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 22.9 | |
| Number Of Employees | 154 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.63 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 1.65 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 261.13 M | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (745.5 M) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 97.35 M | 1.48 B |
| Current Asset | 177.85 M | 9.34 B |
Note: Acquisition by Thornton Peter J of 33000 shares of Avadel Pharmaceuticals subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Avadel . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 22383.76 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.46) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.99 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.88 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.54) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.43) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 45.78 |
About Avadel Pharmaceuticals Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC? Buying financial instruments such as Avadel Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 145.0M | 131.0M | 35.4M | 38.3M | Total Assets | 247.3M | 132.8M | 261.1M | 138.0M |
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Check out Avadel Pharmaceuticals Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Avadel Pharmaceuticals information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Avadel Pharmaceuticals' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Complementary Tools for Avadel Stock analysis
When running Avadel Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Avadel Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avadel Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Avadel Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avadel Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avadel Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avadel Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Avadel Pharmaceuticals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Avadel Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Avadel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Avadel Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.00) | Revenue Per Share 0.349 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (1.00) | Return On Assets (0.58) | Return On Equity (4.81) |
The market value of Avadel Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Avadel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Avadel Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Avadel Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Avadel Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Avadel Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Avadel Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Avadel Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Avadel Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.