Carlyle Group Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

CG Stock  USD 46.91  0.13  0.28%   
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Carlyle Group is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Carlyle buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Carlyle positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Carlyle's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Carlyle's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
41.5
Target Price
38.07
Hype Value
47.06
Market Value
46.91
Naive Value
47.35
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Carlyle Group given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Carlyle. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Carlyle Group, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Carlyle Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Carlyle and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Carlyle Group. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price.

Execute Carlyle Buy or Sell Advice

The Carlyle recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Carlyle Group. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Carlyle Group or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Carlyle's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell CarlyleBuy Carlyle
Strong Hold

Market Performance

OKDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Under hypedDetails

Current Valuation

OvervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Below AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Hyperactively responds to market trendsDetails

Investor Sentiment

InterestedDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

PoorDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Carlyle Group has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0806, Jensen Alpha of (0.03), Total Risk Alpha of (0.18), Sortino Ratio of 0.0641 and Treynor Ratio of 0.109
Our investment recommendation tool can be used to complement Carlyle trade advice provided by experts. It analyzes the company's potential to grow against your specific risk preferences and investment horizon. To make sure Carlyle is not overpriced, please confirm all Carlyle Group fundamentals, including its net income, book value per share, and the relationship between the revenue and total debt . Given that Carlyle Group has a price to earning of 6.52 X, we suggest you to validate Carlyle Group market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Carlyle Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

The company generated the yearly revenue of 2.64 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (608.4 M) with gross profit of 2.51 B.
Carlyle Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 60.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 1st of March 2024 Carlyle paid $ 0.35 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from ajc.com: A new era in Baltimore Orioles eye bright future as David Rubenstein takes over as owner

Carlyle Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Carlyle's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Carlyle's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Carlyle daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Carlyle Group price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Carlyle returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Carlyle.
Mean Return
0.24
Value At Risk
-2.32
Potential Upside
2.61
Standard Deviation
1.84
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Carlyle historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Carlyle Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Carlyle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Carlyle Group backward and forwards among themselves. Carlyle's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Carlyle's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Legal & General Group Plc2023-12-31
4.1 M
Geode Capital Management, Llc2023-12-31
3.6 M
Ameriprise Financial Inc2023-12-31
3.3 M
Norges Bank2023-12-31
3.2 M
Davis Asset Management, L.p.2023-12-31
M
Bank Of New York Mellon Corp2023-12-31
2.7 M
Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc.2023-12-31
2.4 M
Fmr Inc2023-12-31
2.1 M
Centaur Performance Group, Llc2023-12-31
M
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
31.2 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
24.9 M
Note, although Carlyle's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Carlyle Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change In Cash189.7M161.6M1.5B(1.1B)217.6M228.5M
Free Cash Flow330.8M(230.4M)1.7B(1.0B)875.0M1.2B
Depreciation65.6M52.1M52M147.4M180.6M134.3M
Other Non Cash Items(963.7M)(1.4B)(2.9B)(1.2B)1.6B1.6B
Capital Expenditures27.8M61.2M41.4M659M66.6M94.4M
Net Income1.2B382.8M3.0B1.3B(608.4M)(578.0M)
End Period Cash Flow828M989.6M2.5B1.4B1.8B1.1B
Dividends Paid172.6M351.3M355.8M443.6M(497.7M)(472.8M)
Net Borrowings652M(19.1M)103.4M56.5M65.0M61.7M
Change To Netincome(6.3M)(34.7M)375.9M(565.1M)(508.6M)(483.2M)
Investments(27.8M)(61.2M)(32.2M)(828.8M)(50.1M)(52.6M)

Carlyle Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Carlyle or Capital Markets sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Carlyle's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Carlyle stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.03
β
Beta against NYSE Composite2.14
σ
Overall volatility
1.85
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Carlyle Volatility Alert

Carlyle Group has relatively low volatility with skewness of 1.19 and kurtosis of 5.65. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Carlyle's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Carlyle's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Carlyle Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Carlyle's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Carlyle's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Carlyle and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Carlyle or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Carlyle's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Carlyle by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Carlyle to competition
FundamentalsCarlylePeer Average
Return On Equity-0.0788-0.31
Return On Asset-0.0233-0.14
Profit Margin(0.25) %(1.27) %
Operating Margin(1.09) %(5.51) %
Current Valuation25 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding360.95 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders32.16 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions60.06 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted16.43 M4.71 M
Price To Earning6.52 X28.72 X
Price To Book3.25 X9.51 X
Price To Sales7.01 X11.42 X
Revenue2.64 B9.43 B
Gross Profit2.51 B27.38 B
EBITDA(282.7 M)3.9 B
Net Income(608.4 M)570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents1.61 B2.7 B
Cash Per Share4.42 X5.01 X
Total Debt9.26 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity1.24 %48.70 %
Current Ratio2.04 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share14.37 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations941.6 M971.22 M
Short Ratio6.30 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share(1.68) X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth1.45 X4.89 X
Target Price50.62
Number Of Employees2.2 K18.84 K
Beta1.8-0.15
Market Capitalization16.96 B19.03 B
Total Asset21.18 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings2.08 B9.33 B
Z Score1.328.72
Note: Carlyle exotic insider transaction detected [view details]

Carlyle Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Carlyle . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Carlyle Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Carlyle Group? Buying financial instruments such as Carlyle Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total8.5B8.7B9.3B9.2B
Total Assets21.3B21.4B21.2B20.8B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Carlyle in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Communication Thematic Idea Now

Communication
Communication Theme
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Communication theme has 61 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Communication Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Carlyle Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze Carlyle's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Carlyle's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Carlyle Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Carlyle Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
Note that the Carlyle Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Carlyle's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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Is Carlyle's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carlyle. If investors know Carlyle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carlyle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.71)
Dividend Share
1.4
Earnings Share
(1.68)
Revenue Per Share
6.699
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.255
The market value of Carlyle Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carlyle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carlyle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carlyle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carlyle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carlyle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carlyle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Carlyle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carlyle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.