Dollar Tree Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| DLTR Stock | USD 125.36 0.17 0.14% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your slightly conservative level of risk, our recommendation regarding Dollar Tree is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Dollar Tree buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding DLTR positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Dollar Tree's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Dollar Tree's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 140.77 | Target Price 150.17 | Hype Value 124.93 | Market Value 125.36 | Naive Value 124.62 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Dollar Tree given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Dollar Tree. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Dollar Tree, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Dollar |
Execute Dollar Tree Buy or Sell Advice
The Dollar recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Dollar Tree. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Dollar Tree or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Dollar Tree's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Over hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Follows the market closely | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Very Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Dollar Tree Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Dollar Tree generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 30.6 B. Net Loss for the year was (998.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 8.94 B. | |
| Dollar Tree has a very strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from aol.com: 99 Cents Only stores are closing. How I spent 20 in groceries at other discount chains |
Dollar Tree Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Dollar Tree's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Dollar Tree's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Dollar Tree daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Dollar Tree price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Dollar Tree returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Dollar Tree.
| Mean Return | -0.11 | Value At Risk | -2.48 | Potential Upside | 2.27 | Standard Deviation | 2.32 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Dollar Tree historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Dollar Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Dollar Tree is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dollar Tree backward and forwards among themselves. Dollar Tree's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Dollar Tree's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2023-12-31 | 4.4 M | Fidelity International Ltd | 2023-12-31 | 3.2 M | Wellington Management Company Llp | 2023-12-31 | 2.9 M | Franklin Resources Inc | 2023-12-31 | 2.6 M | Macquarie Group Ltd | 2023-12-31 | 2.5 M | Canada Pension Plan Investment Board | 2023-12-31 | 2.5 M | Norges Bank | 2023-12-31 | 2.3 M | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2023-12-31 | 2.3 M | Ubs Asset Mgmt Americas Inc | 2023-12-31 | 2.2 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 23.8 M | Capital World Investors | 2023-12-31 | 17.6 M |
Dollar Tree Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | 13.6M | 97.1M | (940.4M) | (1.1B) | 335.6M | 352.4M | |
| Change In Cash | 139.3M | 877.6M | (425.3M) | (327M) | 42.1M | 24.2M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 833.1M | 1.8B | 408.7M | 361M | 576.9M | 420.6M | |
| Depreciation | 645.4M | 686.6M | 716M | 767.9M | 841M | 883.1M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 344.4M | 23M | 63.9M | 63.7M | 2.6B | 2.7B | |
| Capital Expenditures | 1.0B | 898.8M | 1.0B | 1.3B | 2.1B | 2.2B | |
| Net Income | 827M | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.6B | (998.4M) | (948.5M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 586M | 1.5B | 1.0B | 711.3M | 684.9M | 462.5M | |
| Change To Netincome | 408M | 133.6M | 111.7M | 292.5M | 336.4M | 205.3M | |
| Investments | (1.0B) | (889.7M) | (1.0B) | (1.3B) | (2.1B) | (2.0B) | |
| Net Borrowings | 4.6B | (500M) | (550M) | 197.4M | 177.7M | 168.8M |
Dollar Tree Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Dollar Tree or Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Dollar Tree's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Dollar stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.89 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.38 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Dollar Tree Volatility Alert
Dollar Tree exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -3.48 and kurtosis of 20.71. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Dollar Tree's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Dollar Tree's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Dollar Tree Implied Volatility
Dollar Tree's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Dollar Tree stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Dollar Tree's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Dollar Tree stock will not fluctuate a lot when Dollar Tree's options are near their expiration.
Dollar Tree Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Dollar Tree's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Dollar Tree's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Dollar Tree and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Dollar Tree or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Dollar Tree's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dollar Tree by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Dollar Tree to competition |
| Fundamentals | Dollar Tree | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -0.12 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0498 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0.03) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.09 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 37.03 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 217.98 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.28 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 99.72 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 4.79 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 21.11 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 3.73 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.89 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 30.6 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 8.94 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 1.54 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (998.4 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 439 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 1.99 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 10.39 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 1.25 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.38 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 33.56 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 2.68 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 1.21 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (4.55) X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.14 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 150.91 | |
| Number Of Employees | 65.89 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.9 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 27.33 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 22.02 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 7.12 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 1.44 B | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 357 shares by Robert Aflatooni of Dollar Tree at 133.15 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Dollar Tree Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Dollar . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Dollar Tree Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Dollar Tree? Buying financial instruments such as Dollar Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 10.0B | 10.1B | 10.4B | 10.9B | Total Assets | 21.7B | 23.0B | 22.0B | 23.1B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Dollar Tree in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Video Games Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Dollar Tree Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. To learn how to invest in Dollar Stock, please use our How to Invest in Dollar Tree guide.You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Complementary Tools for Dollar Stock analysis
When running Dollar Tree's price analysis, check to measure Dollar Tree's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dollar Tree is operating at the current time. Most of Dollar Tree's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dollar Tree's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dollar Tree's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dollar Tree to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Dollar Tree's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dollar Tree. If investors know Dollar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dollar Tree listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.19) | Earnings Share (4.55) | Revenue Per Share 139.425 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.119 | Return On Assets 0.0498 |
The market value of Dollar Tree is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dollar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dollar Tree's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dollar Tree's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dollar Tree's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dollar Tree's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dollar Tree's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dollar Tree is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dollar Tree's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.