Guess Inc Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

GES Stock  USD 31.20  0.82  2.70%   
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Guess Inc is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Guess buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Guess positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Guess' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Guess' buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
25.86
Target Price
27.3
Hype Value
31.43
Market Value
31.2
Naive Value
33.87
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Guess Inc given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Guess. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Guess Inc, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Guess Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Guess and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Guess Inc. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in income.

Execute Guess Buy or Sell Advice

The Guess recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Guess Inc. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Guess Inc or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Guess' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell GuessBuy Guess
Cautious Hold

Market Performance

GoodDetails

Volatility

Not too volatileDetails

Hype Condition

Under hypedDetails

Current Valuation

OvervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Very SmallDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Moves totally opposite to the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

ImpartialDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Guess Inc has a Mean Deviation of 1.73, Semi Deviation of 1.53, Standard Deviation of 3.1, Variance of 9.64, Downside Variance of 3.19 and Semi Variance of 2.34
Our investment recommendation module can be used to complement Guess Inc trade recommendations provided by average analyst sentiment. It analyzes the entity's potential to grow using fundamental, technical, data market data available at the time. To make sure Guess Inc is not overpriced, please check out all Guess fundamentals, including its shares owned by institutions, cash per share, beta, as well as the relationship between the revenue and cash flow from operations . Given that Guess Inc has a price to earning of 10.46 X, we strongly advise you to confirm Guess Inc market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your regular risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Guess Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Guess Inc appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Guess Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Guess, Inc. Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Guess Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Guess' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Guess' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Guess daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Guess Inc price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Guess returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Guess.
Mean Return
0.41
Value At Risk
-2.8
Potential Upside
3.54
Standard Deviation
3.10
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Guess historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Guess Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Guess is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Guess Inc backward and forwards among themselves. Guess' institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Guess' securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Barclays Plc2023-12-31
851.5 K
Nomura Holdings Inc2023-12-31
800.2 K
Two Sigma Investments Llc2023-12-31
718.7 K
Bank Of New York Mellon Corp2023-12-31
698.6 K
Bank Of Montreal2023-12-31
668.4 K
Bmo Capital Markets Corp.2023-12-31
668.4 K
Amvescap Plc.2023-12-31
662.6 K
Geode Capital Management, Llc2023-12-31
595.8 K
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts2023-12-31
593.1 K
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
4.8 M
Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc.2023-12-31
3.5 M
Note, although Guess' institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Guess Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change To Inventory65.4M17.8M(91.0M)(54.4M)(49.0M)(46.5M)
Change In Cash73.8M184.5M(53.8M)(139.8M)84.5M88.7M
Free Cash Flow136.0M190.2M68.1M79.7M330.4M346.9M
Depreciation72.2M63.5M56.8M61.5M61.3M58.0M
Other Non Cash Items24.7M110.8M31.9M41.3M70.8M74.4M
Dividends Paid42.1M15.6M36.7M51.8M46.6M57.1M
Capital Expenditures108.1M61.9M18.9M63.5M89.5M0.0
Net Income101.2M(80.7M)180.0M161.5M198.2M106.3M
End Period Cash Flow284.8M469.3M415.6M275.8M360.3M272.8M
Investments162K(4.8M)(62.3M)(89.9M)(80.9M)(76.8M)
Net Borrowings(2.3M)235.0M44.1M(5.8M)(6.6M)(6.3M)
Change To Netincome45.8M34.9M113.0M(39.7M)(45.7M)(43.4M)

Guess Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Guess or Specialty Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Guess' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Guess stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.52
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-1.03
σ
Overall volatility
3.20
Ir
Information ratio 0.09

Guess Volatility Alert

Guess Inc has relatively low volatility with skewness of 4.3 and kurtosis of 27.99. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Guess' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Guess' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Guess Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Guess' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Guess' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Guess and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Guess or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Guess' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Guess by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Guess to competition
FundamentalsGuessPeer Average
Return On Equity0.32-0.31
Return On Asset0.0669-0.14
Profit Margin0.07 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.15 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation2.69 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding53.7 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders48.79 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions67.80 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted7.31 M4.71 M
Price To Earning10.46 X28.72 X
Price To Book3.26 X9.51 X
Price To Sales0.60 X11.42 X
Revenue2.78 B9.43 B
Gross Profit1.15 B27.38 B
EBITDA329.85 M3.9 B
Net Income198.2 M570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents275.76 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share3.23 X5.01 X
Total Debt1.16 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity2.54 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.57 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share12.93 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations330.38 M971.22 M
Short Ratio8.80 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share2.68 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth6.14 X4.89 X
Target Price31.23
Beta1.97-0.15
Market Capitalization1.68 B19.03 B
Total Asset2.59 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings1.28 B9.33 B
Working Capital448.65 M1.48 B
Current Asset1.04 B9.34 B
Note: Disposition of 35000 shares by Paul Marciano of Guess subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Guess Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Guess . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Guess Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Guess Inc? Buying financial instruments such as Guess Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total1.2B1.1B1.2B1.2B
Total Assets2.6B2.4B2.6B1.4B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Guess in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Buywrite ETFs Thematic Idea Now

Buywrite ETFs
Buywrite ETFs Theme
ETF themes focus on helping investors to gain exposure to a broad range of assets, diversify, and lower overall costs. The Buywrite ETFs theme has 23 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Buywrite ETFs Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Guess Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze Guess' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Guess' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Guess Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Guess Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
Note that the Guess Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Guess' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.

Complementary Tools for Guess Stock analysis

When running Guess' price analysis, check to measure Guess' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guess is operating at the current time. Most of Guess' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guess' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guess' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guess to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Guess' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Guess. If investors know Guess will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Guess listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.198
Dividend Share
1.125
Earnings Share
2.68
Revenue Per Share
52.064
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.09
The market value of Guess Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Guess that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Guess' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Guess' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Guess' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Guess' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Guess' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Guess is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guess' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.