Home Federal Bancorp Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

HFBL Stock  USD 12.86  0.90  7.53%   
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your highly speculative risk level, our recommendation regarding Home Federal Bancorp is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Home Federal buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding HFBL positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Home Federal's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Home Federal's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
13.97
Hype Value
12.88
Market Value
12.86
Naive Value
12.73
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Home Federal Bancorp given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Home Federal. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Home Federal Bancorp, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Home Federal Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Home and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Home Federal Bancorp. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics.

Execute Home Federal Buy or Sell Advice

The Home recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Home Federal Bancorp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Home Federal Bancorp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Home Federal's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Home FederalBuy Home Federal
Strong Buy

Market Performance

Very WeakDetails

Volatility

Not too volatileDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Moves indifferently to market movesDetails

Investor Sentiment

InterestedDetails

Analyst Consensus

Not AvailableDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

FrailDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Possible ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Home Federal Bancorp has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.02), Jensen Alpha of (0.12), Total Risk Alpha of (0.62) and Treynor Ratio of 20.53
Our advice tool can cross-verify current analyst consensus on Home Federal and to analyze the company potential to grow in the current economic cycle. To make sure Home Federal Bancorp is not overpriced, please check out all Home Federal fundamentals, including its price to earning, cash per share, beta, as well as the relationship between the gross profit and cash flow from operations . Given that Home Federal Bancorp has a number of shares shorted of 2.06 K, we strongly advise you to confirm Home Federal Bancorp market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your regular risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Home Federal Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Home Federal Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Home Federal Bancorp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 43.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
On 12th of February 2024 Home Federal paid $ 0.125 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Home Federal Bancorp of Louisiana receives regulatory approval for dividend

Home Federal Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Home Federal's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Home Federal's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Home Federal daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Home Federal Bancorp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Home Federal returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Home Federal.
Mean Return
-0.11
Value At Risk
-3.87
Potential Upside
4.19
Standard Deviation
2.25
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Home Federal historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Home Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Home Federal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Home Federal Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Home Federal's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Home Federal's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Royal Bank Of Canada2023-12-31
65.0
Wells Fargo & Co2023-12-31
17.0
Ubs Group Ag2023-12-31
0.0
Bank Of America Corp2023-12-31
0.0
Alliancebernstein L.p.2023-12-31
121.1 K
Stilwell Value Llc2023-12-31
80 K
Level Four Advisory Services, Llc2023-12-31
21.8 K
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
11.7 K
Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc.2023-12-31
11.5 K
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
5.2 K
Goss Wealth Management Llc2023-12-31
K
Note, although Home Federal's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Home Federal Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change In Cash36.8M49.5M(40.3M)(39.3M)(35.4M)(33.6M)
Free Cash Flow(770K)6.0M14.5M10.9M12.6M13.2M
Depreciation653K665K763K869K999.4K1.0M
Other Non Cash Items(6.9M)1.3M10.8M4.5M5.2M5.4M
Capital Expenditures970K2.4M2.6M1.2M1.4M1.4M
Net Income3.9M5.4M4.9M5.7M6.6M6.9M
End Period Cash Flow54.9M104.4M64.1M24.8M28.5M23.7M
Dividends Paid1.1M1.1M1.4M1.5M1.8M1.8M
Investments(32.5M)(22.3M)(26.4M)(115.3M)(103.8M)(98.6M)
Net Borrowings1.6M(93K)(85K)5.4M4.8M5.1M
Change To Netincome(233K)(2.9M)(1.3M)491K564.7K592.9K

Home Federal Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Home Federal or Banks sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Home Federal's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Home stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.12
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.0058
σ
Overall volatility
2.22
Ir
Information ratio -0.11

Home Federal Volatility Alert

Home Federal Bancorp exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.44 and kurtosis of 2.36. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Home Federal's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Home Federal's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Home Federal Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Home Federal's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Home Federal's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Home Federal and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Home Federal or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Home Federal's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Home Federal by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Home Federal to competition
FundamentalsHome FederalPeer Average
Return On Equity0.0897-0.31
Return On Asset0.0074-0.14
Profit Margin0.20 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.20 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation46.34 M16.62 B
Shares Outstanding3.14 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders43.00 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions8.99 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted2.06 K4.71 M
Price To Earning13.15 X28.72 X
Price To Book0.77 X9.51 X
Price To Sales1.80 X11.42 X
Revenue23.45 M9.43 B
Gross Profit20.5 M27.38 B
EBITDA6.94 M3.9 B
Net Income5.7 M570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents64.08 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share21.48 X5.01 X
Total Debt8.55 M5.32 B
Debt To Equity4.53 %48.70 %
Book Value Per Share17.30 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations12.11 M971.22 M
Short Ratio0.89 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share1.48 X3.12 X
Number Of Employees7418.84 K
Beta0.48-0.15
Market Capitalization40.43 M19.03 B
Total Asset660.91 M29.47 B
Retained Earnings12.71 M9.33 B
Z Score2.938.72
Annual Yield0.04 %
Five Year Return1.92 %
Net Asset660.91 M
Note: Acquisition by James Barlow of 300 shares of Home Federal at 13.25 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Home Federal Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Home . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Home Federal Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Home Federal Bancorp? Buying financial instruments such as Home Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total3.2M8.6M7.7M7.3M
Total Assets590.5M660.9M760.1M798.1M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Home Federal in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Moderate Funds
Moderate Funds Theme
Funds or Etfs that combine stocks, bonds and money market instruments to get modest capital appreciation over time. The Moderate Funds theme has 39 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Moderate Funds Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Home Federal Bancorp is a strong investment it is important to analyze Home Federal's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Home Federal's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Home Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Home Federal Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
Note that the Home Federal Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Home Federal's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

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Is Home Federal's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Home Federal. If investors know Home will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Home Federal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.40)
Dividend Share
0.49
Earnings Share
1.48
Revenue Per Share
7.482
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.12)
The market value of Home Federal Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Home that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Home Federal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Home Federal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Home Federal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Home Federal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Home Federal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Home Federal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Home Federal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.