Heritage Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

HTBK -  USA Stock  

USD 11.79  0.15  1.29%

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your highly speculative risk level, our recommendation regarding Heritage Commerce is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Heritage Commerce buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding HTBK positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Heritage Commerce's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.

Heritage Advice 

 
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The advice is provided from Heritage Commerce's buy-and-hold perspective. Please check Heritage Commerce Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Heritage and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Heritage Commerce.

Execute Heritage Commerce Buy or Sell Advice

The Heritage recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Heritage Commerce. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Heritage Commerce or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Heritage Commerce's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Heritage CommerceBuy Heritage Commerce
Strong Buy

Volatility

Not too volatileDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

Fairly ValuedDetails

Odds of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Responds to the marketDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Heritage Commerce has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0439, Jensen Alpha of 0.0375, Total Risk Alpha of 0.0147, Sortino Ratio of 0.0358 and Treynor Ratio of 0.0554
Our advice tool can cross-verify current analyst consensus on Heritage Commerce and to analyze the company potential to grow in the current economic cycle. To make sure Heritage Commerce is not overpriced, please check out all Heritage Commerce fundamentals, including its debt to equity, market capitalization, and the relationship between the net income and earnings per share . Given that Heritage Commerce has a number of shares shorted of 885.41 K, we strongly advise you to confirm Heritage Commerce market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your regular risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Heritage Commerce Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

About 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from sgbonline.com: On Holding Attracts Bullish Wall Street Coverage - SGB Media

Heritage Commerce current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Heritage analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Heritage analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price13.00
Target Median Price13.00
Target High Price14.00
Recommendation Mean2.00
Number Of Analyst Opinions4
Target Low Price12.00
Average Consensus Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Heritage Commerce Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Heritage Commerce's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Heritage Commerce's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Heritage Commerce stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Heritage Commerce price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Heritage Commerce returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Heritage Commerce stock.
Mean Return0.08Value At Risk-1.96
Potential Upside3.33Standard Deviation1.53
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Heritage Commerce historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Heritage Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Heritage Commerce is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Heritage Commerce backward and forwards among themselves. Heritage Commerce's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Heritage Commerce's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Aj Wealth Strategies LlcCommon Shares91.4 K1.1 M
Enterprise Trust Investment CoCommon Shares90.1 KM
Guardian Investment ManagementCommon Shares29.5 K347 K
Palouse Capital Management IncCommon Shares20.9 K243 K
Nisa Investment Advisors LlcCommon Shares16.9 K196 K
Caprock Group IncCommon Shares14.4 K167 K
Security National BankCommon Shares12.5 K145 K
Note, although Heritage Commerce's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Heritage Commerce Cash Flow Accounts

201620172018201920202021 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(480 K)(649 K)(187 K)(203 K)(3.16 M)(3.24 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion2.33 M2.15 M2.7 M3.58 M4.7 M3.71 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents(77.99 M)50.12 M(151.65 M)292.8 M673.7 M726.89 M
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares938 K1.37 M2.67 M1.63 M1.71 M1.48 M
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities3 M(3 M)39.07 M(10.41 M)(328 K)(353.89 K)
Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions(13.63 M)(15.24 M)(18.46 M)(22.72 M)(31.08 M)(31.9 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing183.68 M246.05 M(277.88 M)(28.78 M)470.02 M507.13 M
Net Cash Flow from Investing(287.56 M)(237.29 M)77.66 M271.24 M145.59 M157.09 M
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals(290.87 M)(236.64 M)41.81 M153.45 M148.38 M160.1 M
Net Cash Flow from Operations25.9 M41.36 M48.57 M50.34 M58.09 M48.56 M
Share Based Compensation1.42 M1.75 M1.82 M1.92 M2.25 M1.89 M

Heritage Commerce Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Heritage Commerce or Financial Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Heritage Commerce stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Heritage stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.037507
β
Beta against DOW1.33
σ
Overall volatility
1.49
Ir
Information ratio 0.0302

Heritage Commerce Volatility Alert

Heritage Commerce has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.66 and kurtosis of 0.2. However, we advise all investors to independently investigate Heritage Commerce to ensure all accessible information is consistent with the expectations about its upside potential and future expected returns. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Heritage Commerce's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Heritage Commerce's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Heritage Commerce Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Heritage Commerce's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Heritage Commerce's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Heritage Commerce and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Heritage Commerce or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Heritage Commerce's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Heritage Commerce by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Heritage Commerce to competition
FundamentalsHeritage CommercePeer Average
Return On Equity7.40 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset0.88 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin28.47 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin41.79 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation(573.36 M)16.62 B
Shares Outstanding60.1 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders4.07 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions71.77 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted885.41 K4.71 M
Price to Earning15.74 X28.72 X
Price to Book1.21 X9.51 X
Price to Sales4.71 X11.42 X
Revenue150.48 M9.43 B
Gross Profit138.58 M27.38 B
EBITDA17.18 M3.9 B
Net Income42.84 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents1.33 B2.7 B
Cash per Share22.06 X5.01 X
Total Debt76.43 M5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.05 %48.70 %
Book Value Per Share9.70 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations53.33 M971.22 M
Short Ratio3.63 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share0.75 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth2.16 X4.89 X
Number of Employees33018.84 K
Beta1.24-0.15
Market Capitalization708.61 M19.03 B
Total Asset2.53 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings104.38 M9.33 B
Z Score5.48.72
Five Year Return3.92 %
Last Dividend Paid0.52
   Heritage Commerce exotic insider transaction detected [view details]

Heritage Commerce Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Heritage . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Accumulation Distribution1349.11
Daily Balance Of Power0.75
Rate Of Daily Change1.01
Day Median Price11.73
Day Typical Price11.75
Market Facilitation Index0.0
Price Action Indicator0.13

About Heritage Commerce Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Heritage Commerce? Buying financial instruments such as Heritage Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Heritage Commerce investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2018 2019 2020 2021 (projected)
Cash and Equivalents164.57 M457.37 M1.13 B1.22 B
Total Assets3.1 B4.11 B4.63 B3.86 B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Heritage Commerce in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Run Financials Thematic Idea Now

Financials
Financials Theme
Companies that provide financial services to business or retail customers. Financials theme has 20 constituents.
View All  Next Launch Financials
Please check Heritage Commerce Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Heritage Commerce information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Heritage Commerce's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.

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The market value of Heritage Commerce is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Heritage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Heritage Commerce's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Heritage Commerce's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Heritage Commerce's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Heritage Commerce underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Heritage Commerce's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Heritage Commerce value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Heritage Commerce's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.