Carlotz Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

LOTZ -  USA Stock  

USD 3.11  0.05  1.58%

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Carlotz is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Carlotz buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Carlotz positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Carlotz's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.

Carlotz Advice 

 
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The advice is provided from Carlotz's buy-and-hold perspective. Additionally, see Carlotz Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Carlotz and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Carlotz.

Execute Carlotz Buy or Sell Advice

The Carlotz recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Carlotz. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Carlotz or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Carlotz's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell CarlotzBuy Carlotz
Hold

Volatility

Relatively riskyDetails

Hype Condition

Over hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds of Distress

Below AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Almost mirrors the marketDetails

Analyst Consensus

HoldDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

FrailDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Carlotz has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.07), Jensen Alpha of (0.35), Total Risk Alpha of (0.25) and Treynor Ratio of (0.33)
We provide trade advice to complement the prevailing expert consensus on Carlotz. Our dynamic recommendation engine uses a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the company's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time. To make sure Carlotz is not overpriced, please confirm all Carlotz fundamentals, including its total debt, number of employees, and the relationship between the net income and cash flow from operations . Given that Carlotz has a shares owned by insiders of 22.10 %, we suggest you to validate Carlotz market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Carlotz Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Carlotz generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Carlotz has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 212.46 M. Net Loss for the year was (31.93 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 11.26 M.
Carlotz currently holds about 200.96 M in cash with (113.73 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.76.
Carlotz has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 22.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Payment of 15134 shares by Polak Rebecca C of Carlotz subject to Rule 16b-3

Carlotz current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Carlotz analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Carlotz analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price9.50
Target Median Price9.50
Target High Price12.00
Recommendation Mean2.30
Number Of Analyst Opinions2
Target Low Price7.00
Average Consensus Hold
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Carlotz Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Carlotz's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Carlotz's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Carlotz stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Carlotz price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Carlotz returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Carlotz stock.
Mean Return-0.37Value At Risk-5.67
Potential Upside4.57Standard Deviation3.39
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Carlotz historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Carlotz Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Carlotz is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Carlotz backward and forwards among themselves. Carlotz's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Carlotz's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Tremblant Capital GroupCommon Shares6.9 M26.3 M
Blackrock IncCommon Shares4.9 M18.6 M
Vanguard Group IncCommon Shares3.5 M13.5 M
Must Asset Management IncCommon Shares3.5 M13.2 M
Balyasny Asset Management LlcWarrants400 K5.2 M
Geode Capital Management LlcCommon Shares1.3 MM
State Street CorpCommon Shares912.6 K3.5 M
Group One Trading LpCall Options884.9 K3.4 M
Taylor Frigon Capital Management LlcCommon Shares855.8 K3.3 M
Susquehanna International Group LlpPut Options380.2 K1.4 M
Note, although Carlotz's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Carlotz Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Carlotz or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Carlotz stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Carlotz stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.35
β
Beta against DOW1.17
σ
Overall volatility
3.40
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Carlotz Volatility Alert

Carlotz exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.11 and kurtosis of 1.31. However, we advise investors to further study Carlotz technical indicators to make sure all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Carlotz's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Carlotz's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Carlotz Implied Volatility

Carlotz's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Carlotz stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Carlotz's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Carlotz stock will not fluctuate a lot when Carlotz's options are near their expiration.

Carlotz Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Carlotz's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Carlotz's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Carlotz and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Carlotz or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Carlotz's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Carlotz by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Carlotz to competition
FundamentalsCarlotzPeer Average
Return On Equity(27.67) %(0.31) %
Return On Asset(41.35) %(0.14) %
Profit Margin(14.14) %(1.27) %
Operating Margin(51.60) %(5.51) %
Current Valuation201.73 M16.62 B
Shares Outstanding113.67 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders22.10 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions45.35 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted5.21 M4.71 M
Price to Sales1.73 X11.42 X
Revenue212.46 M9.43 B
Gross Profit11.26 M27.38 B
EBITDA(108.82 M)3.9 B
Net Income(31.93 M)570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents200.96 M2.7 B
Cash per Share1.76 X5.01 X
Total Debt33.39 M5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.15 %48.70 %
Current Ratio6.02 X2.16 X
Cash Flow from Operations(113.73 M)971.22 M
Short Ratio4.72 X4.00 X
Price to Earnings To Growth0.12 X4.89 X
Number of Employees16618.84 K
Beta0.17-0.15
Market Capitalization367.15 M19.03 B
Z Score6.08.72
   Payment of 15134 shares by Polak Rebecca C of Carlotz subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

About Carlotz Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Carlotz? Buying financial instruments such as Carlotz Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Carlotz investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2010 2019 2020 2021 (projected)
Current Assets12 K15.22 M25.86 M21.54 M
Total Assets306 K16.64 M28.2 M23.55 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Carlotz in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Fabricated Products
Fabricated Products Theme
Fama and French focuses on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. Fabricated Products theme has 24 constituents.
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Additionally, see Carlotz Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Carlotz information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Carlotz's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

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Is Carlotz's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carlotz. If investors know Carlotz will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carlotz listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Carlotz is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carlotz that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carlotz's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carlotz's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carlotz's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carlotz's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carlotz's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Carlotz value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carlotz's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.