Merck Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

MRK -  USA Stock  

USD 80.90  0.32  0.40%

Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Merck Company is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Merck buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Merck positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Merck's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.

Merck Advice 

 
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The advice is provided from Merck's buy-and-hold perspective. Additionally, see Merck Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Merck and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Merck Company.

Execute Merck Buy or Sell Advice

The Merck recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Merck Company. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Merck Company or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Merck's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell MerckBuy Merck
Hold

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

Fairly ValuedDetails

Odds of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Barely shadows the marketDetails

Analyst Consensus

HoldDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

Very StrongDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Merck Company has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0095, Jensen Alpha of 0.0037, Total Risk Alpha of 0.1161, Sortino Ratio of 0.0204 and Treynor Ratio of (0.012186)
Macroaxis provides trade recommendations on Merck Company to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Merck. Our advice engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Merck Company is not overpriced, please verify all Merck Company fundamentals, including its revenue, cash flow from operations, current asset, as well as the relationship between the cash per share and beta . Given that Merck Company has a price to earning of 27.82 X, we recommend you to check Merck market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your last-minute risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Merck Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Merck Company generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Merck Company was previously known as Merck Co and was traded on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol MRK.
About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Is Mercks new COVID-19 pill enough to make the stock a buy - Seeking Alpha

Merck current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Merck analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Merck analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price92.31
Target Median Price93.00
Target High Price115.00
Recommendation Mean2.20
Number Of Analyst Opinions24
Target Low Price70.00
Average Consensus Hold
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Merck Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Merck's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Merck's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Merck stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Merck Company price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Merck returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Merck stock.
Mean Return0.008846Value At Risk-2.83
Potential Upside2.13Standard Deviation1.97
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Merck historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Merck Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Merck is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Merck Company backward and forwards among themselves. Merck's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Merck's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Nordea Investment Management AbCommon Shares12.1 M938.1 M
Sarasin Partners LlpCommon Shares4.1 M312.2 M
Russell Investments Group LtdCommon Shares3.3 M250.6 M
Van Eck Associates CorpCommon Shares3.1 M239.8 M
New York State Teachers Retirement SystemCommon SharesM226.9 M
Strs OhioCommon SharesM155 M
Retirement Systems Of AlabamaCommon Shares1.7 M131.1 M
Note, although Merck's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Merck Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(1.89 B)(2.62 B)(3.47 B)(4.68 B)(4.22 B)(4.33 B)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion4.68 B4.52 B3.65 B3.62 B3.26 B4.09 B
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents(419 M)1.87 B1.97 B(1.77 B)(1.59 B)(1.63 B)
Net Cash Flow Business Acquisitions and Disposals(396 M)(431 M)(4.95 B)(7.61 B)(6.85 B)(7.03 B)
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares(3.52 B)(8.5 B)(4.42 B)(1.19 B)(1.07 B)(1.16 B)
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities(1.13 B)837 M1.25 B5.01 B5.76 B6.22 B
Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions(5.17 B)(5.17 B)(5.7 B)(6.21 B)(5.59 B)(6.04 B)
Net Cash Flow from Financing(10.01 B)(13.16 B)(8.86 B)(2.83 B)(2.55 B)(2.75 B)
Net Cash Flow from Investing2.68 B4.31 B(2.63 B)(9.44 B)(10.86 B)(11.15 B)
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals4.92 B7.26 B5.42 B2.72 B3.12 B3.37 B
Net Cash Flow from Operations6.45 B10.92 B13.44 B10.25 B9.23 B9.32 B
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash457 M(205 M)17 M253 M290.95 M313.92 M
Share Based Compensation312 M348 M417 M475 M546.25 M484.86 M

Merck Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Merck or Healthcare sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Merck stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Merck stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.003651
β
Beta against DOW0.09
σ
Overall volatility
1.86
Ir
Information ratio 0.0251

Merck Volatility Alert

Merck Company currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.03 and Jensen Alpha of 0.0. However, we advise investors to further question Merck Company expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Merck's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Merck's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Merck Implied Volatility

Merck's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Merck Company stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Merck's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Merck stock will not fluctuate a lot when Merck's options are near their expiration.

Merck Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Merck's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Merck's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Merck and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Merck or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Merck's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merck by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Merck to competition
FundamentalsMerckPeer Average
Return On Equity26.04 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset12.13 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin13.68 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin40.03 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation210.99 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding2.53 B571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders0.07 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions74.63 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted21.29 M4.71 M
Price to Earning27.82 X28.72 X
Price to Book5.56 X9.51 X
Price to Sales3.79 X11.42 X
Revenue52.61 B9.43 B
Gross Profit34.57 B27.38 B
EBITDA21.06 B3.9 B
Net Income8.46 B570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents10.04 B2.7 B
Cash per Share3.98 X5.01 X
Total Debt26.44 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.74 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.31 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share14.17 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations13.08 B971.22 M
Short Ratio1.38 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share2.83 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth0.87 X4.89 X
Number of Employees73 K18.84 K
Beta0.49-0.15
Market Capitalization199.12 B19.03 B
Total Asset101.78 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings48.91 B9.33 B
Working Capital10.56 B1.48 B
Current Asset29.76 B9.34 B
   Exercise or conversion by Kenneth Frazier of 663881 shares of Merck subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Merck Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Merck . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Accumulation Distribution294651.0
Daily Balance Of Power0.1768
Rate Of Daily Change1.0
Day Median Price80.09
Day Typical Price80.36
Price Action Indicator0.98

About Merck Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Merck Company? Buying financial instruments such as Merck Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Merck investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Receivables6.78 B7.85 B9.03 B8.92 B
Inventories5.98 B6.31 B7.26 B7.13 B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Merck in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Beer and Liquor Thematic Idea Now

Beer and Liquor
Beer and Liquor Theme
Fama and French focuses on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. Beer and Liquor theme has 29 constituents.
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Additionally, see Merck Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Merck Company information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Merck's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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When running Merck Company price analysis, check to measure Merck's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merck is operating at the current time. Most of Merck's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merck's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merck's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merck to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Merck's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merck. If investors know Merck will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Merck listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Merck Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Merck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Merck's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Merck's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Merck's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Merck's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merck's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Merck value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merck's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.