Microsoft Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| MSFT Stock | USD 321.67 0.13 0.0404% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your highly speculative risk level, our recommendation regarding Microsoft is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Microsoft buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding MSFT positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Microsoft's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Real Value 356.7 | Target Price 384.71 | Hype Value 322.12 | Market Value 321.67 | Naive Value 313.01 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Microsoft given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Microsoft. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Microsoft, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Microsoft |
Execute Microsoft Buy or Sell Advice
The Microsoft recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Microsoft. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Microsoft or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Microsoft's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Buy
Microsoft Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Microsoft generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Microsoft is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 73.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 14th of September 2023 Microsoft paid $ 0.68 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: US FTC Revives Microsoft-Activision Deal Challenge - Yahoo Finance |
Microsoft Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Microsoft's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Microsoft's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Microsoft stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Microsoft price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Microsoft returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Microsoft.
| Mean Return | -0.05 | Value At Risk | -2.4 | Potential Upside | 1.71 | Standard Deviation | 1.37 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Microsoft historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Microsoft Cash Flow Accounts
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | ||
| Capital Expenditure | (13.93 B) | (15.44 B) | (20.62 B) | (23.89 B) | (28.11 B) | (28.85 B) | |
| Depreciation Amortization and Accretion | 11.68 B | 12.8 B | 11.69 B | 14.46 B | 13.86 B | 12.83 B | |
| Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents | (590 M) | 2.22 B | 648 M | (293 M) | 20.77 B | 22.41 B | |
| Net Cash Flow Business Acquisitions and Disposals | (2.39 B) | (2.52 B) | (8.91 B) | (22.04 B) | (1.67 B) | (1.8 B) | |
| Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares | (18.4 B) | (21.62 B) | (25.69 B) | (30.86 B) | (20.38 B) | (21.99 B) | |
| Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities | (4 B) | (8.94 B) | (5.5 B) | (9.02 B) | (2.75 B) | (2.82 B) | |
| Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions | (13.81 B) | (15.14 B) | (16.52 B) | (18.14 B) | (19.8 B) | (21.36 B) | |
| Net Cash Flow from Financing | (36.89 B) | (46.03 B) | (48.49 B) | (58.88 B) | (43.94 B) | (45.09 B) | |
| Net Cash Flow from Investing | (15.77 B) | (12.22 B) | (27.58 B) | (30.31 B) | (22.68 B) | (24.47 B) | |
| Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals | 540 M | 6.98 B | 2.88 B | 18.44 B | 10.21 B | 11.02 B | |
| Net Cash Flow from Operations | 52.19 B | 60.67 B | 76.74 B | 89.03 B | 87.58 B | 76.3 B | |
| Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash | (115 M) | (201 M) | (29 M) | (141 M) | (194 M) | (199.11 M) | |
| Share Based Compensation | 4.65 B | 5.29 B | 6.12 B | 7.5 B | 9.61 B | 7.7 B |
Microsoft Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Microsoft or Software sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Microsoft's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Microsoft stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.77 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.38 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0007 |
Microsoft Volatility Alert
Microsoft exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.11 and kurtosis of 0.56. However, we advise investors to further study Microsoft technical indicators to ensure that all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Microsoft's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Microsoft's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.Microsoft Implied Volatility
Microsoft's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Microsoft stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Microsoft's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Microsoft stock will not fluctuate a lot when Microsoft's options are near their expiration.
Microsoft Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Microsoft's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Microsoft's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Microsoft and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Microsoft or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Microsoft's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Microsoft by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Microsoft to competition |
| Fundamentals | Microsoft | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.39 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.14 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.34 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.42 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 2314.13 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 7.43 B | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned by Insiders | 0.05 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned by Institutions | 73.21 % | 39.21 % |
| Number of Shares Shorted | 41.15 M | 4.71 M |
| Price to Earning | 26.64 X | 28.72 X |
| Price to Book | 11.05 X | 9.51 X |
| Price to Sales | 9.14 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 211.91 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 135.62 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 102.38 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 72.36 B | 570.98 M |
| Cash and Equivalents | 34.7 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash per Share | 14.39 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 59.97 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt to Equity | 0.44 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.84 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 27.75 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow from Operations | 87.58 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 2.04 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 9.69 X | 3.12 X |
| Price to Earnings To Growth | 2.27 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 391.14 | |
| Number of Employees | 221 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.9 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 2345.95 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 411.98 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 118.85 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 80.11 B | 1.48 B |
Note: Acquisition by Padmasree Warrior of 175 shares of Microsoft subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
About Microsoft Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Microsoft? Buying financial instruments such as Microsoft Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Receivables | 38.04 B | 44.26 B | 48.69 B | 52.53 B | Inventories | 2.64 B | 3.74 B | 2.5 B | 2.24 B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Microsoft in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Broad Commodities ETFs
ETF themes focus on helping investors to gain exposure to a broad range of assets, diversify, and lower overall costs. The Broad Commodities ETFs theme has 24 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Broad Commodities ETFs Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Microsoft Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more information on how to buy Microsoft Stock please use our How to Invest in Microsoft guide. Note that the Microsoft information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Microsoft's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Microsoft Stock analysis
When running Microsoft's price analysis, check to measure Microsoft's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microsoft is operating at the current time. Most of Microsoft's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microsoft's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microsoft's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microsoft to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Microsoft's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Microsoft. If investors know Microsoft will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Microsoft listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.202 | Dividend Share 2.72 | Earnings Share 9.69 | Revenue Per Share 28.46 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.083 |
The market value of Microsoft is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Microsoft that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Microsoft's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Microsoft's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Microsoft's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Microsoft's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Microsoft's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Microsoft is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Microsoft's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.