National Bank Holdings Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| NBHC Stock | USD 34.40 0.40 1.15% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding National Bank Holdings is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides National Bank buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding NBHC positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of National Bank's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting National Bank's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 35.68 | Target Price 37 | Hype Value 34.41 | Market Value 34.4 | Naive Value 34.63 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell National Bank Holdings given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards National Bank. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for National Bank Holdings, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
National |
Execute National Bank Buy or Sell Advice
The National recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on National Bank Holdings. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in National Bank Holdings or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute National Bank's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Inapplicable | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
National Bank Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| National Bank generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of March 2024 National Bank paid $ 0.27 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Positive earnings growth hasnt been enough to get National Bank Holdings shareholders a favorable return over the last three years |
National Bank Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of National Bank's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of National Bank's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of National Bank daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use National Bank Holdings price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of National Bank returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for National Bank.
| Mean Return | 0.03 | Value At Risk | -2.97 | Potential Upside | 3.44 | Standard Deviation | 1.95 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of National Bank historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
National Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as National Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Bank Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. National Bank's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase National Bank's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 796.9 K | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 714.7 K | Kennedy Capital Management Inc | 2023-12-31 | 646.7 K | Nuveen Asset Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 576.6 K | Deprince Race & Zollo Inc | 2023-12-31 | 526.3 K | Jackson Hole Capital Partners, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 471.5 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2023-12-31 | 436.9 K | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2023-12-31 | 397.8 K | Sei Investments Co | 2023-12-31 | 336.9 K | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 5.4 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 4.2 M |
National Bank Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 634K | 495.4M | 234.7M | (651.7M) | (6.2M) | (5.9M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 31.3M | (14.2M) | 179.5M | 202.2M | 121.1M | 127.2M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 11.2M | 4.4M | 5.1M | 12.4M | 36.8M | 38.7M | |
| Net Income | 80.4M | 88.6M | 93.6M | 71.3M | 141.8M | 148.9M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 120.2M | 615.6M | 850.2M | 198.5M | 192.3M | 182.7M | |
| Depreciation | 15.0M | 14.4M | 13.6M | 16.4M | 17.4M | 14.3M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (92.7M) | (135.5M) | 92.9M | 184.9M | 4.7M | 4.9M | |
| Investments | (94.2M) | (148.3M) | (455.2M) | (752.1M) | (368.8M) | (350.4M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (103.1M) | (241.7M) | 39.3M | 382.4M | 439.8M | 461.8M | |
| Dividends Paid | 23.5M | 24.8M | 26.9M | 30.4M | 39.6M | 41.6M | |
| Change To Netincome | (50.1M) | (101.5M) | 106.1M | 173.6M | 199.7M | 209.7M |
National Bank Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to National Bank or Banks sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that National Bank's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a National stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.48 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
National Bank Volatility Alert
National Bank Holdings currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of -0.03 and Jensen Alpha of -0.11. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure National Bank's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact National Bank's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.National Bank Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing National Bank's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze National Bank's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between National Bank and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as National Bank or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of National Bank's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Bank by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare National Bank to competition |
| Fundamentals | National Bank | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.12 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0146 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.34 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.42 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 1.51 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 37.81 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 2.19 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 93.57 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 384.51 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 14.95 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.03 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 3.00 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 563.52 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 297.48 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 7.39 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 141.81 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 476.01 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 15.91 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 445.93 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 6.59 % | 48.70 % |
| Book Value Per Share | 32.10 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 157.95 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 2.15 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 3.72 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.90 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 41.8 | |
| Number Of Employees | 1.23 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.82 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 1.32 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 9.95 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 433.13 M | 9.33 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.03 % | |
| Five Year Return | 1.99 % |
Note: Disposition of 836 shares by Brendan Zahl of National Bank at 35.41 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
National Bank Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as National . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1903.7 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.77) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 34.42 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 34.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.22) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.40) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 53.33 |
About National Bank Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell National Bank Holdings? Buying financial instruments such as National Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Total Stockholder Equity | 840.1M | 1.1B | 1.2B | 697.4M | Total Assets | 7.2B | 9.6B | 10.0B | 6.4B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having National Bank in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Medical Equipment Thematic Idea Now
Medical Equipment
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Medical Equipment theme has 61 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Medical Equipment Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out National Bank Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the National Bank Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other National Bank's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for National Stock analysis
When running National Bank's price analysis, check to measure National Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Bank is operating at the current time. Most of National Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is National Bank's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Bank. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Bank listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.988 | Dividend Share 1.06 | Earnings Share 3.72 | Revenue Per Share 11.007 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.156 |
The market value of National Bank Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Bank's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Bank's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Bank's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Bank's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Bank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Bank is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Bank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.