Nicholas Mutual Fund Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

NCTWX -  USA Fund  

USD 33.07  0.61  1.88%

Assuming the 90 days horizon and your complete indifference towards market risk, our recommendation regarding Nicholas II is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Nicholas buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Nicholas positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Nicholas' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.

Nicholas Advice 

 
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The advice is provided from Nicholas' buy-and-hold perspective. Additionally, see Nicholas Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual funds such as Nicholas and provide practical buy, sell, or hold recommendation based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Nicholas II.

Execute Nicholas Buy or Sell Advice

The Nicholas recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Nicholas II. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Nicholas II or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Nicholas' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell NicholasBuy Nicholas
Strong Buy

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

StaleDetails

Current Valuation

Fairly ValuedDetails

Odds of Distress

Very SmallDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Barely shadows the marketDetails

Analyst Consensus

Not AvailableDetails
For the selected time horizon Nicholas II has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.20), Jensen Alpha of (0.54), Total Risk Alpha of (0.36) and Treynor Ratio of (2.25)
Our trade recommendations module can be used to complement Nicholas II advice provided by average analyst sentiment. It analyzes the entity's potential to grow using fundamental, technical, data market data available at the time. Use Nicholas II one year return, as well as the relationship between the ten year return and cash position weight to ensure your buy or sell decision on Nicholas II is adequate.

Nicholas Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Nicholas II generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Nicholas II is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund maintains 98.06% of its assets in stocks

Nicholas Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Nicholas' historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Nicholas' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Nicholas stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Nicholas II price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Nicholas returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Nicholas stock.
Mean Return-0.55Value At Risk-2.57
Potential Upside1.43Standard Deviation2.17
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Nicholas historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Nicholas Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Nicholas or Nicholas sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Nicholas stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Nicholas stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.54
β
Beta against DOW0.25
σ
Overall volatility
2.30
Ir
Information ratio -0.22

Nicholas Volatility Alert

Nicholas II exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -2.95 and kurtosis of 11.38. However, we advise investors to further study Nicholas II technical indicators to make sure all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Nicholas' mutual fund risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Nicholas' mutual fund price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Nicholas Implied Volatility

Nicholas' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Nicholas II stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Nicholas' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Nicholas stock will not fluctuate a lot when Nicholas' options are near their expiration.

Nicholas Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Nicholas' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Nicholas' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Nicholas and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Nicholas or determine the mutual funds which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Nicholas' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nicholas by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Nicholas to competition
FundamentalsNicholasPeer Average
Price to Earning23.75 X6.53 X
Price to Book4.01 X0.74 X
Price to Sales1.94 X0.61 X
One Year Return9.66 %4.15 %
Three Year Return10.88 %3.60 %
Five Year Return8.38 %3.24 %
Ten Year Return12.36 %1.79 %
Net Asset1.16 B4.11 B
Minimum Initial Investment100 K976.16 K
Cash Position Weight1.45 %10.61 %
Equity Positions Weight98.06 %63.90 %
Bond Positions Weight0.49 %11.24 %

About Nicholas Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Nicholas II? Buying financial instruments such as Nicholas Mutual Fund isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Nicholas investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Nicholas in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Driverless Cars
Driverless Cars Theme
Large technology companies, automotive makers, security firms, and thematic ETFs across multiple industries that are directly or indirectly involved in shaping up the development and marketing of self-driving vehicles. Driverless Cars theme has 35 constituents.
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Additionally, see Nicholas Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Nicholas II information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Nicholas' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

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When running Nicholas II price analysis, check to measure Nicholas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nicholas is operating at the current time. Most of Nicholas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nicholas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nicholas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nicholas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Nicholas' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Nicholas value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nicholas' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.