Northrop Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

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NOC -- USA Stock  

Report: 30th of July 2020  

Considering the 30-days investment horizon, and your above-average risk tolerance our recommendation regarding Northrop Grumman is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Northrop Grumman buy hold or sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding NOC positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Northrop Grumman available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. The advice is provided from NOC buy-and-hold perspective. Additionally, see Northrop Grumman Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments please use Instant Ratings tool.

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Time Horizon

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Sell Northrop GrummanBuy Northrop Grumman
Cautious Hold

Volatility

Hype Condition

Current Valuation

Odds of Distress

Analyst Consensus

Piotroski F Score

Financial Leverage

For the selected time horizon Northrop Grumman has a mean deviation of 1.68, standard deviation of 2.14 and variance of 4.59
Macroaxis provides buy or sell recommendations on Northrop Grumman to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Northrop Grumman. Our advice engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Northrop Grumman is not overpriced, please verify all Northrop Grumman fundamentals, including its revenue, current ratio, market capitalization, as well as the relationship between the cash and equivalents and earnings per share . Given that Northrop Grumman has a price to earning of 21.98 X, we recommend you to check Northrop Grumman market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your last-minute risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Northrop Grumman Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Northrop Grumman generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
Over 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 29th of May 2020 Northrop Grumman paid $ 1.45 per share dividend to its current shareholders

Northrop Grumman current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Northrop analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Northrop analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Median Price398.00
Target Mean Price393.18
Recommendation Mean1.90
Target High Price450.00
Number Of Analyst Opinions17
Target Low Price309.00
Average Consensus Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation is comprised of individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Northrop Grumman Returns Distribution Density

The chart of the probability distribution of Northrop Grumman stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Northrop Grumman' stock's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The distribution of Northrop Grumman returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Northrop Grumman stock.
Mean Return-0.14Value At Risk-3.48
Potential Upside2.97Standard Deviation2.14
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Northrop Grumman historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Institutional Investors

Security TypeSharesValue
Cox Capital Mgt LlcCommon SharesK612 K
Gantzert Investment Co LlcCommon Shares1.9 K573 K
Nelson Van Denburg Campbell Wealth Management Group LlcCommon Shares829254 K
Park National CorpCommon Shares813250 K
Mr Capital Management IncCommon Shares71.021 K
State Street CorpCommon Shares16.4 MB
Capital International InvestorsCommon Shares16.4 MB

Northrop Grumman Cash Flow Accounts

2014201520162017201820192020 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(561 M)(471 M)(920 M)(928 M)(1.25 B)(1.26 B)(1.3 B)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion462 M467 M456 M475 M800 M1.02 B862.68 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents(1.29 B)(1.54 B)222 M8.68 B(9.65 B)666 M718.58 M
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares(2.67 B)(3.18 B)(1.55 B)(393 M)(1.26 B)(744 M)(802.74 M)
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities1.96 B600 M563 M8.23 B(2.4 B)(729 M)(748.18 M)
Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions(563 M)(603 M)(640 M)(689 M)(821 M)(880 M)(949.47 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing(3.23 B)(3.27 B)(1.79 B)6.96 B(4.59 B)(2.42 B)(2.62 B)
Net Cash Flow from Investing(645 M)(431 M)(805 M)(889 M)(8.88 B)(1.21 B)(1.3 B)
Net Cash Flow from Operations2.59 B2.16 B2.81 B2.61 B3.83 B4.3 B3.85 B
Share Based Compensation53 M(4 M)93 M94 M86 M127 M105.27 M

Northrop Grumman Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Northrop Grumman or Robots And Drones sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Northrop Grumman stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Northrop stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
=-0.14
β
Beta against DOW=-0.06
σ
Overall volatility
=2.11
Ir
Information ratio =-0.15

Northrop Grumman Volatility Alert

Northrop Grumman exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.02 and kurtosis of 0.39. However, we advise investors to further study Northrop Grumman technical indicators to make sure all market info is available and is reliable.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Northrop Grumman to competition

Northrop Grumman Fundamental Vs Peers

FundamentalsNorthrop GrummanPeer Average
Return On Equity25.31 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset4.63 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin6.57 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin11.91 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation62.5 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding166.7 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders0.49 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions84.06 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted1.28 M4.71 M
Price to Earning21.98 X28.72 X
Price to Book5.38 X9.51 X
Price to Sales1.42 X11.42 X
Revenue34.27 B9.43 B
Gross Profit7.26 B27.38 B
EBITDA4.08 B3.9 B
Net Income2.25 B570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents3.28 B2.7 B
Cash per Share19.66 X5.01 X
Total Debt18.11 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity2.00 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.29 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share54.23 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations4.22 B971.22 M
Short Ratio1.27 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share13.29 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth1.41 X4.89 X
Number of Employees90 K18.84 K
Beta0.79-0.15
Market Capitalization48.68 B19.03 B
Total Asset25.61 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings8.65 B9.33 B
Working Capital1.23 B1.48 B
Current Asset6.86 B9.34 B
   Acquisition by Marianne Brown of 109 shares of Northrop Grumman subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

About Northrop Grumman Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Northrop Grumman? Buying stocks such as Northrop Grumman isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily bases. Although Northrop Grumman investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply. Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2017 2018 2019 2020 (projected)
Receivables3.98 B6.47 B6.66 B7.19 B
Inventories780 M654 M783 M883.14 M

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Additionally, see Northrop Grumman Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments please use Instant Ratings tool. Please also try Bollinger Bands module to use bollinger bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Macroaxis is not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. All investments, including stocks, funds, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies, are speculative and involve substantial risk of loss. We encourage our investors to invest carefully. Much of our information is derived directly from data published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies which we believe are reliable, but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements or recommendations. Also, note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, and all investment decisions of an individual remain the responsibility of that individual. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or signals will result in profits or that they will not result in losses. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any investing they choose to do. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results. We make no representations or warranties that any investor will, or is likely to, achieve profits similar to those shown because hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. For more information please visit our terms and condition page