Northern Oil Gas Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

NOG Stock  USD 39.55  0.02  0.05%   
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your conservative attitude towards risk, our recommendation regarding Northern Oil Gas is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Northern Oil buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding NOG positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Northern Oil's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Northern Oil's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
47.46
Target Price
51.17
Hype Value
39.51
Market Value
39.55
Naive Value
40.6
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Northern Oil Gas given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Northern Oil. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Northern Oil Gas, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Northern Oil Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Northern and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Northern Oil Gas. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in persons.

Execute Northern Oil Buy or Sell Advice

The Northern recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Northern Oil Gas. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Northern Oil Gas or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Northern Oil's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Northern OilBuy Northern Oil
Cautious Hold

Market Performance

GoodDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Very LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Almost mirrors the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

AlarmedDetails

Analyst Consensus

Strong BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Northern Oil Gas has a Mean Deviation of 0.9754, Semi Deviation of 1.7, Standard Deviation of 1.41, Variance of 1.98, Downside Variance of 4.09 and Semi Variance of 2.88
Northern Oil Gas trade recommendations module can be used to check and cross-verify current advice provided by analysts analyzing the firm's potential to grow using all of fundamental, technical, data market data available at the time. To make sure Northern Oil Gas is not overpriced, please verify all Northern Oil Gas fundamentals, including its revenue, current ratio, beta, as well as the relationship between the cash and equivalents and earnings per share . Given that Northern Oil Gas has a price to earning of 9.03 X, we recommend you to check Northern Oil market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your last-minute risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Northern Oil Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

The company has 1.84 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 7.22, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Northern Oil Gas has a current ratio of 0.59, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Northern Oil until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Northern Oil's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Northern Oil Gas sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Northern to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Northern Oil's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 93.0% of Northern Oil shares are owned by institutional investors
On 30th of April 2024 Northern Oil paid $ 0.4 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Northern Oil and Gas Now Appears To Be Near Fair Valuation - Seeking Alpha

Northern Oil Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Northern Oil's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Northern Oil's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Northern Oil daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Northern Oil Gas price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Northern Oil returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Northern Oil.
Mean Return
0.23
Value At Risk
-2.55
Potential Upside
1.90
Standard Deviation
1.41
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Northern Oil historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Northern Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Northern Oil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Northern Oil Gas backward and forwards among themselves. Northern Oil's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Northern Oil's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Westfield Capital Management Company, Lp2023-12-31
1.5 M
Bank Of New York Mellon Corp2023-12-31
1.5 M
Nuveen Asset Management, Llc2023-12-31
1.4 M
Principal Financial Group Inc2023-12-31
1.4 M
Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc.2023-12-31
1.4 M
Allspring Global Investments Holdings, Llc2023-12-31
1.4 M
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts2023-12-31
1.2 M
Alliancebernstein L.p.2023-12-31
1.1 M
Northern Trust Corp2023-12-31
1.1 M
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
13.7 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
10.6 M
Note, although Northern Oil's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Northern Oil Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Capital Expenditures569.1M283.9M593.8M1.4B1.8B1.9B
Net Income(76.3M)(906.0M)6.4M773.2M923.0M969.1M
Other Non Cash Items(3.3M)5.6M6.8M(38.8M)(202.1M)(192.0M)
End Period Cash Flow16.1M1.4M9.5M2.5M8.2M15.9M
Change In Cash13.7M(14.6M)8.1M(7.0M)5.7M6.0M
Free Cash Flow(229.4M)47.8M(197.3M)(431.4M)(661.9M)(628.8M)
Depreciation411.6M1.2B465.3M251.3M486.0M510.3M
Net Borrowings212.5M(61.5M)(139.4M)722.1M830.4M871.9M
Change To Netincome241.7M1.0B334.3M(30.0M)(27.0M)(25.6M)
Investments(569.1M)(283.9M)(634.4M)(1.4B)(2.0B)(1.9B)

Northern Oil Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Northern Oil or Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Northern Oil's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Northern stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.18
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.06
σ
Overall volatility
1.42
Ir
Information ratio 0.13

Northern Oil Volatility Alert

Northern Oil Gas currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.13 and Jensen Alpha of 0.18. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Northern Oil's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Northern Oil's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Northern Oil Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Northern Oil's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Northern Oil's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Northern Oil and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Northern Oil or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Northern Oil's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Northern Oil by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Northern Oil to competition
FundamentalsNorthern OilPeer Average
Return On Equity0.39-0.31
Return On Asset0.13-0.14
Profit Margin0.32 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.11 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation5.88 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding101.06 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders7.28 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions92.72 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted10.66 M4.71 M
Price To Earning9.03 X28.72 X
Price To Book2.10 X9.51 X
Price To Sales2.47 X11.42 X
Revenue1.91 B9.43 B
Gross Profit1.57 B27.38 B
EBITDA1.36 B3.9 B
Net Income922.97 M570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents2.53 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share0.02 X5.01 X
Total Debt1.84 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity7.22 %48.70 %
Current Ratio0.60 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share19.91 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations1.18 B971.22 M
Short Ratio7.51 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share6.16 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth1.32 X4.89 X
Target Price49.79
Number Of Employees3818.84 K
Beta1.85-0.15
Market Capitalization4 B19.03 B
Total Asset4.48 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings(77.79 M)9.33 B
Working Capital123.65 M1.48 B

Northern Oil Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Northern . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Northern Oil Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Northern Oil Gas? Buying financial instruments such as Northern Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Total Current Liabilities327.6M345.0M385.8M405.0M
Short and Long Term Debt Total803.4M1.5B1.8B1.9B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Northern Oil in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Hotels, inns, motels, and other companies providing lodging and hospitality services. The Hotels theme has 43 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Hotels Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Northern Oil Gas is a strong investment it is important to analyze Northern Oil's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Northern Oil's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Northern Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Northern Oil Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.

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Is Northern Oil's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northern Oil. If investors know Northern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northern Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.97)
Dividend Share
1.55
Earnings Share
6.16
Revenue Per Share
19.262
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.229
The market value of Northern Oil Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northern Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northern Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northern Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northern Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northern Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Northern Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northern Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.