Novavax Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

NVAX Stock  USD 7.24  0.08  1.12%   
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Novavax is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Novavax buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Novavax positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Novavax's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Real Value
Target Price
Hype Value
Market Value
Naive Value
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Novavax given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Novavax. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Novavax, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Check out Novavax Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more information on how to buy Novavax Stock please use our How to Invest in Novavax guide. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Novavax and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Novavax. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.

Execute Novavax Buy or Sell Advice

The Novavax recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Novavax. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Novavax or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Novavax's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell NovavaxBuy Novavax
Strong Hold

Market Performance




Hype Condition


Current Valuation


Odds of Distress


Economic Sensitivity


Analyst Consensus


Financial Strenth (F Score)


Financial Leverage


Reporting Quality (M-Score)

For the selected time horizon Novavax has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0286, Jensen Alpha of 0.2387, Total Risk Alpha of 0.4457, Sortino Ratio of 0.0481 and Treynor Ratio of 0.1007
We provide investment recommendation to complement the last-minute expert consensus on Novavax. Our dynamic recommendation engine harnesses a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the entity's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time. To make sure Novavax is not overpriced, please verify all Novavax fundamentals, including its book value per share, and the relationship between the net income and beta . Given that Novavax has a price to earning of (1.36) X, we recommend you to check Novavax market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your last-minute risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Novavax Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Novavax had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Novavax has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.6 B. Net Loss for the year was (657.94 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (156.04 M).
Novavax currently holds about 1.28 B in cash with (415.94 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 16.31, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Roughly 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from A Struggling Covid Vaccine Maker Tops List of Most-Shorted Stocks - The Wall Street Journal

Novavax Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Novavax's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Novavax's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Novavax stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Novavax price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Novavax returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Novavax.
Mean Return
Value At Risk
Potential Upside
Standard Deviation
   Return Density   
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Novavax historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Novavax Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Novavax is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Novavax backward and forwards among themselves. Novavax's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Novavax's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Last TransactionTypeSharesValue
State Street Corp2023-06-30Common Shares11.7 M86.8 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-06-30Common Shares10.6 M78.6 M
Shah Capital Management2023-06-30Common Shares9.7 M70.2 M
Blackrock Inc2023-06-30Common SharesM52 M
Tenor Capital Management Co Lp2022-12-31Debt50 M50.7 M
Whitebox Advisors Llc2022-12-31Debt39.7 M39.3 M
Highbridge Capital Management Llc2022-12-31Debt39.5 M39.3 M
Deepcurrents Investment Group Llc2022-12-31Debt31.9 M31.7 M
Deerfield Management Company Lp Series C2022-09-30Debt25 M24.4 M
Piper Sandler Co2022-12-31Debt19.7 M19.6 M
Vr Adviser Llc2022-12-31Common Shares1.9 M19.3 M
Note, although Novavax's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Novavax Cash Flow Accounts

201820192020202120222023 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(1.37 M)16.48 M(54.62 M)(57.49 M)(92.98 M)(95.43 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion8.16 M5.68 M4.88 M12.66 M29.05 M31.35 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents(53.47 M)221 K566.56 M879.52 M(179.41 M)(184.14 M)
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares102.81 M98.38 M881 M589.62 M248.59 M262.03 M
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities324.53 M(37 K)(96.06 M)(127.91 M)81.66 M88.1 M
Net Cash Flow from Financing102.81 M98.38 M984.76 M461.71 M324.99 M319.46 M
Net Cash Flow from Investing28.6 M38.49 M(377.78 M)100.15 M(92.98 M)(95.43 M)
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals29.97 M22.02 M(157.64 M)157.64 M181.29 M195.6 M
Net Cash Flow from Operations(184.82 M)(136.62 M)(42.54 M)322.95 M(415.94 M)(426.88 M)
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash(48 K)(32 K)2.12 M(5.29 M)4.52 M4.88 M
Share Based Compensation18.31 M17.05 M128.03 M183.63 M130.3 M140.59 M

Novavax Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Novavax or Biotechnology sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Novavax's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Novavax stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Alpha over NYSE Composite
Beta against NYSE Composite1.91
Overall volatility
Information ratio 0.0342

Novavax Volatility Alert

Novavax is displaying above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. Investors should scrutinize Novavax independently to ensure intended market timing strategies are aligned with expectations about Novavax volatility. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Novavax's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Novavax's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Novavax Implied Volatility

Novavax's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Novavax stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Novavax's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Novavax stock will not fluctuate a lot when Novavax's options are near their expiration.

Novavax Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Novavax's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Novavax's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Novavax and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Novavax or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Novavax's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Novavax by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
 Better Than Average     
 Worse Than Average Compare Novavax to competition
FundamentalsNovavaxPeer Average
Return On Equity-8.98-0.31
Return On Asset-0.18-0.14
Profit Margin(0.37) %(1.27) %
Operating Margin(0.38) %(5.51) %
Current Valuation407.35 M16.62 B
Shares Outstanding100.9 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders0.59 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions70.61 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted44.5 M4.71 M
Price to Earning(1.36) X28.72 X
Price to Book49.52 X9.51 X
Price to Sales0.48 X11.42 X
Revenue1.6 B9.43 B
Gross Profit(156.04 M)27.38 B
EBITDA(633.77 M)3.9 B
Net Income(657.94 M)570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents1.28 B2.7 B
Cash per Share16.31 X5.01 X
Total Debt549.78 M5.32 B
Debt to Equity8.24 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.05 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share(8.00) X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations(415.94 M)971.22 M
Short Ratio3.62 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share(7.11) X3.12 X
Target Price20.6
Number of Employees1.99 K18.84 K
Market Capitalization722.47 M19.03 B
Total Asset2.26 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings(4.28 B)9.33 B
Working Capital(756.55 M)1.48 B
Current Asset287.26 M9.34 B
Note: Exercise or conversion by John Trizzino of 833 shares of Novavax subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Novavax Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Novavax . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Novavax Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Novavax? Buying financial instruments such as Novavax Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2020 2022 2023 (projected)
Receivables262.01 M82.38 M75.25 M
Inventories36.68 M33.01 M35.62 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Novavax in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Real Estate Thematic Idea Now

Real Estate
Real Estate Theme
Publicly traded companies that are involved in real estate development, property maintenance and management of real estate investment trusts (REIT) funds. The Real Estate theme has 42 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Real Estate Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Novavax Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more information on how to buy Novavax Stock please use our How to Invest in Novavax guide. Note that the Novavax information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Novavax's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..

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When running Novavax's price analysis, check to measure Novavax's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novavax is operating at the current time. Most of Novavax's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novavax's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novavax's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novavax to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Novavax's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Novavax. If investors know Novavax will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Novavax listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
Revenue Per Share
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Return On Assets
Return On Equity
The market value of Novavax is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Novavax that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Novavax's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Novavax's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Novavax's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Novavax's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Novavax's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Novavax is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novavax's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.