Semtech Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

SMTC Stock  USD 32.07  1.02  3.29%   
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Semtech is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Semtech buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Semtech positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Semtech's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Semtech's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
34.61
Target Price
34.09
Hype Value
32.74
Market Value
32.07
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Semtech given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Semtech. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Semtech, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Semtech Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
For information on how to trade Semtech Stock refer to our How to Trade Semtech Stock guide.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Semtech and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Semtech. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in estimate.

Execute Semtech Buy or Sell Advice

The Semtech recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Semtech. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Semtech or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Semtech's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell SemtechBuy Semtech
Strong Buy

Market Performance

GoodDetails

Volatility

Not too volatileDetails

Hype Condition

Under hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Below AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Hyperactively responds to market trendsDetails

Investor Sentiment

InterestedDetails

Analyst Consensus

Strong BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Possible ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Semtech has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1389, Jensen Alpha of 0.6585, Total Risk Alpha of 0.357, Sortino Ratio of 0.2682 and Treynor Ratio of 0.3228
Our recommendation module can be used to complement Semtech trade recommendation provided by average analyst sentiment. It analyzes the firm's potential to grow using fundamental, technical, data market data available at the time. To make sure Semtech is not overpriced, please validate all Semtech fundamentals, including its price to book, total debt, target price, as well as the relationship between the ebitda and cash flow from operations . Given that Semtech has a price to earning of 32.54 X, we advise you to double-check Semtech market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your current risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Semtech Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Semtech appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 868.76 M. Net Loss for the year was (1.09 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 484.22 M.
Semtech currently holds about 376.07 M in cash with (93.92 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.92.
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 1520 shares by Wilson John Michael of Semtech at 23.71 subject to Rule 16b-3

Semtech Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Semtech's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Semtech's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Semtech daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Semtech price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Semtech returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Semtech.
Mean Return
0.87
Value At Risk
-4.4
Potential Upside
7.41
Standard Deviation
4.08
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Semtech historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Semtech Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Semtech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Semtech backward and forwards among themselves. Semtech's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Semtech's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Balyasny Asset Management Llc2023-12-31
1.6 M
Contour Asset Management Llc2023-12-31
1.5 M
Geode Capital Management, Llc2023-12-31
1.4 M
Victory Capital Management Inc.2023-12-31
1.4 M
Point72 Asset Management, L.p.2023-09-30
1.2 M
Neuberger Berman Group Llc2023-12-31
1.2 M
Nuveen Asset Management, Llc2023-12-31
1.1 M
Fisher Asset Management, Llc2023-12-31
1.1 M
Jpmorgan Chase & Co2023-12-31
1.1 M
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
10.3 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
8.3 M
Note, although Semtech's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Semtech Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change To Inventory(9.3M)(14.5M)(26.5M)(3.8M)57.3M60.2M
Change In Cash(18.8M)(24.4M)10.7M(44.1M)(106.9M)(101.6M)
Free Cash Flow95.6M86.2M176.9M98.4M(125.0M)(118.8M)
Depreciation39.6M35.9M35.3M36.9M84.5M88.7M
Capital Expenditures23.1M32.7M26.2M28.3M31.1M17.0M
Net Income31.9M59.9M125.6M61.4M(1.1B)(1.0B)
End Period Cash Flow293.3M268.9M279.6M235.5M128.6M151.7M
Other Non Cash Items5.7M13.5M4.4M(15.1M)914.6M960.3M
Change To Netincome46.8M49.6M58.5M50.0M57.6M31.9M
Investments(11.6M)(42.9M)(8.2M)(1.2B)(22.7M)(23.8M)
Change Receivables(21.5M)17.3M(8.5M)(1.1M)(1.2M)(1.3M)
Net Borrowings(15.9M)(17.4M)(16M)(8M)(7.2M)(6.8M)

Semtech Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Semtech or Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Semtech's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Semtech stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.66
β
Beta against NYSE Composite2.66
σ
Overall volatility
4.03
Ir
Information ratio 0.19

Semtech Volatility Alert

Semtech currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.19 and Jensen Alpha of 0.66. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Semtech's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Semtech's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Semtech Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Semtech's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Semtech's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Semtech and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Semtech or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Semtech's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Semtech by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Semtech to competition
FundamentalsSemtechPeer Average
Return On Equity-4.87-0.31
Return On Asset-0.0104-0.14
Profit Margin(1.26) %(1.27) %
Operating Margin(0.03) %(5.51) %
Current Valuation3.26 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding64.56 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders1.23 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions98.77 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted10.98 M4.71 M
Price To Earning32.54 X28.72 X
Price To Book2.43 X9.51 X
Price To Sales2.43 X11.42 X
Revenue868.76 M9.43 B
Gross Profit484.22 M27.38 B
EBITDA50.34 M3.9 B
Net Income(1.09 B)570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents376.07 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share5.92 X5.01 X
Total Debt1.4 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity0.24 %48.70 %
Current Ratio4.12 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share(4.77) X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations(93.92 M)971.22 M
Short Ratio6.26 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share(17.03) X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth2.72 X4.89 X
Target Price39.5
Number Of Employees1.92 K18.84 K
Beta1.85-0.15
Market Capitalization2 B19.03 B
Total Asset1.37 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings(233.79 M)9.33 B
Working Capital317.04 M1.48 B
Note: Disposition of 1520 shares by Wilson John Michael of Semtech at 23.71 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Semtech Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Semtech . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Semtech Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Semtech? Buying financial instruments such as Semtech Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total175.7M1.3B1.4B1.5B
Total Assets1.1B2.6B1.4B1.4B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Semtech in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Printing and Publishing Thematic Idea Now

Printing and Publishing
Printing and Publishing Theme
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Printing and Publishing theme has 20 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Printing and Publishing Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Semtech offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Semtech's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Semtech Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Semtech Stock:
Check out Semtech Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
For information on how to trade Semtech Stock refer to our How to Trade Semtech Stock guide.
You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

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When running Semtech's price analysis, check to measure Semtech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Semtech is operating at the current time. Most of Semtech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Semtech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Semtech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Semtech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Semtech's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Semtech. If investors know Semtech will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Semtech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.33)
Earnings Share
(17.03)
Revenue Per Share
13.547
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.152
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of Semtech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Semtech that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Semtech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Semtech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Semtech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Semtech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Semtech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Semtech is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Semtech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.