Supernus Pharmaceuticals Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

SUPN Stock  USD 34.11  0.37  1.10%   
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Supernus Pharmaceuticals is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Supernus Pharmaceuticals buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding SUPN positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Supernus Pharmaceuticals' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Supernus Pharmaceuticals' buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
37.42
Target Price
42.25
Hype Value
33.99
Market Value
34.11
Naive Value
32.5
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Supernus Pharmaceuticals given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Supernus Pharmaceuticals. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Supernus Pharmaceuticals, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Supernus Pharmaceuticals Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
To learn how to invest in Supernus Stock, please use our How to Invest in Supernus Pharmaceuticals guide.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Supernus and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Supernus Pharmaceuticals. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey.

Execute Supernus Pharmaceuticals Buy or Sell Advice

The Supernus recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Supernus Pharmaceuticals. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Supernus Pharmaceuticals or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Supernus Pharmaceuticals' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Supernus PharmaceuticalsBuy Supernus Pharmaceuticals
Cautious Hold

Market Performance

GoodDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Over hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Actively responds to the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

AlarmedDetails

Analyst Consensus

Strong BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Supernus Pharmaceuticals has a Mean Deviation of 1.93, Semi Deviation of 2.18, Standard Deviation of 2.39, Variance of 5.73, Downside Variance of 5.39 and Semi Variance of 4.77
Our recommendation module can be used to complement Supernus Pharmaceuticals trade recommendation provided by average analyst sentiment. It analyzes the firm's potential to grow using fundamental, technical, data market data available at the time. To make sure Supernus Pharmaceuticals is not overpriced, please validate all Supernus Pharmaceuticals fundamentals, including its debt to equity, and the relationship between the gross profit and price to earnings to growth . Given that Supernus Pharmaceuticals has a price to earning of 15.25 X, we advise you to double-check Supernus Pharmaceuticals market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your current risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

The company currently holds 41.53 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.53, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Supernus Pharmaceuticals has a current ratio of 0.83, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Supernus Pharmaceuticals until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Supernus Pharmaceuticals' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Supernus Pharmaceuticals sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Supernus to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Supernus Pharmaceuticals' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 95.0% of Supernus Pharmaceuticals shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. VP Padmanabh P. Bhatt Sells 14491 Shares of Stock - Defense World

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Supernus Pharmaceuticals' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Supernus Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Supernus Pharmaceuticals daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Supernus Pharmaceuticals price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Supernus Pharmaceuticals returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Supernus Pharmaceuticals.
Mean Return
0.26
Value At Risk
-4.18
Potential Upside
4.03
Standard Deviation
2.39
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Supernus Pharmaceuticals historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Supernus Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Supernus Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Supernus Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Supernus Pharmaceuticals' institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Supernus Pharmaceuticals' securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Geode Capital Management, Llc2023-12-31
1.2 M
Aristotle Capital Boston, Llc2023-12-31
1.2 M
Pictet Asset Manangement Sa2023-12-31
M
Congress Asset Management Company, Llp2023-12-31
920.8 K
Ashford Capital Management Inc2023-12-31
826.5 K
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts2023-12-31
723.4 K
Victory Capital Management Inc.2023-12-31
690.4 K
Northern Trust Corp2023-12-31
648.4 K
Ameriprise Financial Inc2023-12-31
559.7 K
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
10.4 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
6.2 M
Note, although Supernus Pharmaceuticals' institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change To Inventory(969K)(10.1M)(14.6M)(17.9M)6.1M6.4M
Change In Cash(10.9M)107.3M(85.2M)(110.3M)(18.1M)(17.2M)
Free Cash Flow140.4M135.0M125.1M116.4M110.5M116.1M
Depreciation6.7M18.1M32.6M85.5M84.9M89.1M
Capital Expenditures2.7M3.4M2.0M412K551K523.5K
Net Income113.1M127.0M53.4M60.7M1.3M1.3M
End Period Cash Flow181.4M288.6M203.4M93.1M75.1M97.3M
Other Non Cash Items13.8M12.7M24.6M3.6M33.0M34.7M
Investments(156.5M)267.5M218.9M(216.3M)285.9M300.2M
Change Receivables15.8M(34.6M)3.9M(16.4M)(14.7M)(15.5M)
Change To Netincome9.0M16.1M19.6M(10.5M)(12.1M)(11.5M)

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Supernus Pharmaceuticals or Pharmaceuticals sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Supernus Pharmaceuticals' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Supernus stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.02
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.89
σ
Overall volatility
2.40
Ir
Information ratio 0.05

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Volatility Alert

Supernus Pharmaceuticals currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.05 and Jensen Alpha of 0.02. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Supernus Pharmaceuticals' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Supernus Pharmaceuticals' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Supernus Pharmaceuticals' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Supernus Pharmaceuticals' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Supernus Pharmaceuticals and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Supernus Pharmaceuticals or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Supernus Pharmaceuticals' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Supernus Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Supernus Pharmaceuticals to competition
FundamentalsSupernus PharmaceuticalsPeer Average
Return On Equity0.0015-0.31
Return On Asset0.0056-0.14
Profit Margin0 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.12 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation1.65 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding54.73 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders5.11 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions94.89 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted4.92 M4.71 M
Price To Earning15.25 X28.72 X
Price To Book2.02 X9.51 X
Price To Sales3.07 X11.42 X
Revenue607.52 M9.43 B
Gross Profit580.02 M27.38 B
EBITDA98.26 M3.9 B
Net Income1.32 M570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents360.79 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share6.74 X5.01 X
Total Debt41.53 M5.32 B
Debt To Equity0.53 %48.70 %
Current Ratio0.85 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share16.84 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations111.08 M971.22 M
Short Ratio10.54 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share0.02 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth1.47 X4.89 X
Target Price40.5
Number Of Employees65218.84 K
Beta0.97-0.15
Market Capitalization1.87 B19.03 B
Total Asset1.41 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings482.56 M9.33 B
Working Capital202.92 M1.48 B
Note: Disposition of 14491 shares by Padmanabh Bhatt of Supernus Pharmaceuticals at 35.31 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Supernus . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Supernus Pharmaceuticals Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Supernus Pharmaceuticals? Buying financial instruments such as Supernus Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total420.6M438.0M41.5M39.5M
Total Assets1.7B1.7B1.4B1.5B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Supernus Pharmaceuticals in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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When determining whether Supernus Pharmaceuticals offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Supernus Pharmaceuticals' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Supernus Pharmaceuticals Stock:
Check out Supernus Pharmaceuticals Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
To learn how to invest in Supernus Stock, please use our How to Invest in Supernus Pharmaceuticals guide.
You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.

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Is Supernus Pharmaceuticals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Supernus Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Supernus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Supernus Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.96)
Earnings Share
0.02
Revenue Per Share
11.14
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.02)
Return On Assets
0.0056
The market value of Supernus Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Supernus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Supernus Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Supernus Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Supernus Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Supernus Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Supernus Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Supernus Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Supernus Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.