Tillys Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

TLYS
 Stock
  

USD 7.06  0.20  2.75%   

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Tillys Inc is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Tillys buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Tillys positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Tillys' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
The advice is provided from Tillys' buy-and-hold perspective. Additionally, take a look at Tillys Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Tillys and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Tillys Inc.

Execute Tillys Buy or Sell Advice

The Tillys recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Tillys Inc. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Tillys Inc or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Tillys' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell TillysBuy Tillys
Strong Hold

Volatility

Details

Hype Condition

Details

Current Valuation

Details

Odds of Distress

Details

Economic Sensitivity

Details

Analyst Consensus

Details

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Details
For the selected time horizon Tillys Inc has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.013477), Jensen Alpha of 0.0545, Total Risk Alpha of 0.1465 and Treynor Ratio of (0.043892)
We provide advice to complement the current expert consensus on Tillys. Our dynamic recommendation engine harnesses a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the firm's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time. To make sure Tillys Inc is not overpriced, please validate all Tillys fundamentals, including its total debt, and the relationship between the revenue and earnings per share . Given that Tillys Inc has a price to earning of 4.16 X, we advise you to double-check Tillys Inc market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your current risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Tillys Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Tillys Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.marketbeat.com: TransUnion PT Lowered to 90.00 at Atlantic Securities - MarketBeat

Tillys current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Tillys analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Tillys analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price11.33
Target Median Price12.00
Target High Price12.00
Recommendation Mean2.20
Number Of Analyst Opinions3
Target Low Price10.00
Average Consensus Strong Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Tillys Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Tillys' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Tillys' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Tillys stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Tillys Inc price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Tillys returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Tillys.
Mean Return-0.04Value At Risk-4.56
Potential Upside3.42Standard Deviation2.46
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Tillys historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Tillys Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Tillys is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tillys Inc backward and forwards among themselves. Tillys' institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Tillys' securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Blackrock IncCommon Shares1.9 M13.6 M
Dimensional Fund Advisors LpCommon Shares1.6 M11.1 M
Divisar Capital Management LlcCommon Shares1.4 M9.7 M
Vanguard Group IncCommon Shares1.3 M8.9 M
Renaissance Technologies LlcCommon Shares1.2 M8.8 M
Paradigm Capital Management IncCommon Shares1.2 M8.4 M
Long Focus Capital Management LlcCommon Shares745 K5.2 M
Note, although Tillys' institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Tillys Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Tillys or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Tillys' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Tillys stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.05
β
Beta against DOW1.17
σ
Overall volatility
2.45
Ir
Information ratio 0.0159

Tillys Volatility Alert

Tillys Inc exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.34 and kurtosis of -0.3. However, we advise investors to further study Tillys Inc technical indicators to ensure that all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Tillys' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Tillys' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Tillys Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Tillys' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Tillys' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Tillys and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Tillys or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Tillys' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tillys by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Tillys to competition
FundamentalsTillysPeer Average
Return On Equity31.59 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset9.14 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin7.14 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin9.74 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation364.85 M16.62 B
Shares Outstanding23.66 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders1.87 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions88.93 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted859.15 K4.71 M
Price to Earning4.16 X28.72 X
Price to Book1.30 X9.51 X
Price to Sales0.29 X11.42 X
Revenue758.31 M9.43 B
Gross Profit355.08 M27.38 B
EBITDA89.85 M3.9 B
Net Income54.1 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents110.95 M2.7 B
Cash per Share3.69 X5.01 X
Total Debt248.38 M5.32 B
Debt to Equity1.48 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.70 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share5.39 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations26.57 M971.22 M
Short Ratio3.77 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share(0.04) X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth1.03 X4.89 X
Number of Employees1.45 K18.84 K
Beta1.99-0.15
Market Capitalization216.76 M19.03 B
Total Asset270.75 M29.47 B
Retained Earnings39.84 M9.33 B
Working Capital110.97 M1.48 B
Current Asset166.78 M9.34 B
   Purchase by Hezy Shaked of 2000 shares of Tillys [view details]

Tillys Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Tillys . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Tillys Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Tillys Inc? Buying financial instruments such as Tillys Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Tillys in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Electronics Thematic Idea Now

Electronics
Electronics Theme
Companies manufacturing electronic appliances and goods. The Electronics theme has 40 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Electronics Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Additionally, take a look at Tillys Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..

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Is Tillys' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Tillys. If investors know Tillys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Tillys listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Tillys Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Tillys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Tillys' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Tillys' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Tillys' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Tillys' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Tillys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Tillys value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tillys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.