Union Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

UNP
 Stock
  

USD 215.26  5.09  2.42%   

Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Union Pacific Corp is 'Buy'. Macroaxis provides Union Pacific buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding UNP positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Union Pacific's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
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The advice is provided from Union Pacific's buy-and-hold perspective. Also, please take a look at Union Pacific Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Union and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Union Pacific Corp.

Execute Union Pacific Buy or Sell Advice

The Union recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Union Pacific Corp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Union Pacific Corp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Union Pacific's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Union PacificBuy Union Pacific
Buy

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

Fairly ValuedDetails

Odds of Distress

Below AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Follows the market closelyDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Union Pacific Corp has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.33), Jensen Alpha of (0.24), Total Risk Alpha of (0.17) and Treynor Ratio of (0.49)
Macroaxis provides recommendation on Union Pacific Corp to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Union Pacific Corp. Our trade recommendation engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Union Pacific Corp is not overpriced, please validate all Union Pacific fundamentals, including its price to sales, short ratio, five year return, as well as the relationship between the cash per share and total asset . Given that Union Pacific Corp has a price to earning of 20.46 X, we advise you to double-check Union Pacific Corp market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your current risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Union Pacific Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Union Pacific Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company has 33.83 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.84, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. Union Pacific Corp has a current ratio of 0.7, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Union Pacific until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Union Pacific's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Union Pacific Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Union to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Union Pacific's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 81.0% of Union Pacific outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: Should You Invest in the Vanguard Industrials ETF - Nasdaq

Union Pacific current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Union analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Union analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price264.52
Target Median Price265.00
Target High Price310.00
Recommendation Mean2.20
Number Of Analyst Opinions27
Target Low Price215.00
Average Consensus Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Union Pacific Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Union Pacific's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Union Pacific's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Union Pacific stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Union Pacific Corp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Union Pacific returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Union Pacific stock.
Mean Return-0.39Value At Risk-3.64
Potential Upside1.89Standard Deviation1.67
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Union Pacific historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Union Pacific Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Net Cash Flow from Financing(4.15 B)(5.22 B)(5.65 B)(4.9 B)(7.16 B)(7.72 B)
Net Cash Flow from Investing(3.09 B)(3.41 B)(3.44 B)(2.68 B)(2.71 B)(2.92 B)
Net Cash Flow from Operations7.23 B8.69 B8.61 B8.54 B9.03 B7.82 B

Union Pacific Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Union Pacific or Industrials sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Union Pacific stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Union stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.24
β
Beta against DOW0.81
σ
Overall volatility
1.56
Ir
Information ratio -0.12

Union Pacific Volatility Alert

Union Pacific Corp exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.51 and kurtosis of -0.11. However, we advise investors to further study Union Pacific Corp technical indicators to make sure all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Union Pacific's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Union Pacific's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Union Pacific Implied Volatility

Union Pacific's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Union Pacific Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Union Pacific's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Union Pacific stock will not fluctuate a lot when Union Pacific's options are near their expiration.

Union Pacific Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Union Pacific's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Union Pacific's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Union Pacific and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Union Pacific or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Union Pacific's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Union Pacific by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Union Pacific to competition
FundamentalsUnion PacificPeer Average
Return On Equity48.40 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset9.70 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin30.06 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin52.84 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation168.07 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding628.03 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders0.18 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions80.89 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted6.31 M4.71 M
Price to Earning20.46 X28.72 X
Price to Book11.37 X9.51 X
Price to Sales5.97 X11.42 X
Revenue22.66 B9.43 B
Gross Profit12.75 B27.38 B
EBITDA11.98 B3.9 B
Net Income6.81 B570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents955 M2.7 B
Cash per Share1.52 X5.01 X
Total Debt33.83 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity2.84 %48.70 %
Current Ratio0.71 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share18.94 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations9.31 B971.22 M
Short Ratio2.26 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share10.52 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth1.15 X4.89 X
Number of Employees30.19 K18.84 K
Beta1.21-0.15
Market Capitalization135.19 B19.03 B
Total Asset55.72 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings31.64 B9.33 B
Working Capital(44 M)1.48 B
Current Asset3.6 B9.34 B
   Acquisition by Eric Gehringer of tradable shares of Union Pacific subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

About Union Pacific Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Union Pacific Corp? Buying financial instruments such as Union Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Union Pacific investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Receivables1.59 B1.5 B1.72 B1.52 B
Inventories751 M638 M621 M612 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Union Pacific in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Wholesale Thematic Idea Now

Wholesale
Wholesale Theme
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Wholesale theme has 61 constituents.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Wholesale Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
View All  Next Launch Wholesale
Also, please take a look at Union Pacific Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Union Pacific Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Union Pacific's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

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Is Union Pacific's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Union Pacific. If investors know Union will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Union Pacific listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.28
Market Capitalization
132 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.17
Return On Assets
0.097
Return On Equity
0.48
The market value of Union Pacific Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Union that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Union Pacific's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Union Pacific's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Union Pacific's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Union Pacific's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Union Pacific's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Union Pacific value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Union Pacific's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.