American Financial Group Stock Market Value

AFG Stock  USD 136.80  2.80  2.09%   
American Financial's market value is the price at which a share of American Financial trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of American Financial Group investors about its performance. American Financial is trading at 136.80 as of the 28th of March 2024. This is a 2.09 percent increase since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 134.74.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of American Financial Group and determine expected loss or profit from investing in American Financial over a given investment horizon. Check out American Financial Correlation, American Financial Volatility and American Financial Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on American Financial.
Symbol

American Financial Price To Book Ratio

Is American Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Financial. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.03)
Dividend Share
2.68
Earnings Share
10.05
Revenue Per Share
87.981
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.087
The market value of American Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

American Financial 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American Financial's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American Financial.
0.00
02/27/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 31 days
03/28/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in American Financial on February 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Financial Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Financial over 30 days. American Financial is related to or competes with Chubb, NI Holdings, Allstate, CNA Financial, HCI, and Mercury General. American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides specialty property and casualty insurance product... More

American Financial Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American Financial's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American Financial Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

American Financial Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American Financial's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American Financial's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American Financial historical prices to predict the future American Financial's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
135.62136.72137.82
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
123.12142.89143.99
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
137.00138.10139.20
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
119.21131.00145.41
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in American Financial.

American Financial Backtested Returns

American Financial appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. American Financial secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.25, which signifies that the company had a 0.25% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for American Financial Group, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of American Financial's mean deviation of 0.809, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1419 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, American Financial holds a performance score of 19. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.72, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, American Financial's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding American Financial is expected to be smaller as well. Please check American Financial's treynor ratio, expected short fall, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and potential upside , to make a quick decision on whether American Financial's price patterns will revert.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.82  

Very good predictability

American Financial Group has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Financial time series from 27th of February 2024 to 13th of March 2024 and 13th of March 2024 to 28th of March 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Financial price movement. The serial correlation of 0.82 indicates that around 82.0% of current American Financial price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.82
Spearman Rank Test0.89
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance3.43

American Financial lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is American Financial stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American Financial's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American Financial returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American Financial has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

American Financial regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American Financial stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American Financial stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American Financial stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

American Financial Lagged Returns

When evaluating American Financial's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American Financial stock have on its future price. American Financial autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American Financial autocorrelation shows the relationship between American Financial stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American Financial Group.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

American Financial Investors Sentiment

The influence of American Financial's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in American. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to American Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Financial Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
American Financial's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for American Financial's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average American Financial's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on American Financial.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Financial in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Financial's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Financial options trading.

Pair Trading with American Financial

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Financial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Financial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with American Stock

  0.92L Loews CorpPairCorr
  0.83CB Chubb Financial Report 23rd of April 2024 PairCorr
  0.9NODK NI HoldingsPairCorr
  0.85FRFHF Fairfax FinancialPairCorr

Moving against American Stock

  0.67FACO First Acceptance CorpPairCorr
  0.6PRA ProAssurance Financial Report 14th of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Financial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Financial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Financial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Financial Group to buy it.
The correlation of American Financial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Financial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Financial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether American Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze American Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out American Financial Correlation, American Financial Volatility and American Financial Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on American Financial.
Note that the American Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

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When running American Financial's price analysis, check to measure American Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Financial is operating at the current time. Most of American Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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American Financial technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of American Financial technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of American Financial trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...