Amazon (Germany) Market Value
| AMZ Stock | EUR 174.96 1.26 0.72% |
| Symbol | Amazon |
Amazon 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Amazon's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Amazon.
| 03/16/2024 |
| 04/15/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Amazon on March 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Amazon Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Amazon over 30 days. Amazon is related to or competes with Apple, Apple, Apple, Apple, Apple, Microsoft, and Microsoft. Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions in North America and internationally More
Amazon Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Amazon's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Amazon Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1651 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.14 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.77) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.22 |
Amazon Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Amazon's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Amazon's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Amazon historical prices to predict the future Amazon's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1379 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.315 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1589 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.242 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.9086 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amazon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Amazon Inc Backtested Returns
Amazon appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Amazon Inc secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.22, which signifies that the company had a 0.22% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Amazon Inc, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Amazon's mean deviation of 1.13, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1379 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Amazon holds a performance score of 16. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.37, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Amazon's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Amazon is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Amazon's mean deviation, standard deviation, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the downside deviation and total risk alpha , to make a quick decision on whether Amazon's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.80 |
Very good predictability
Amazon Inc has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Amazon time series from 16th of March 2024 to 31st of March 2024 and 31st of March 2024 to 15th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Amazon Inc price movement. The serial correlation of 0.8 indicates that around 80.0% of current Amazon price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.8 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.79 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 9.87 |
Amazon Inc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Amazon stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Amazon's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Amazon returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Amazon has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Amazon regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Amazon stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Amazon stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Amazon stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Amazon Lagged Returns
When evaluating Amazon's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Amazon stock have on its future price. Amazon autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Amazon autocorrelation shows the relationship between Amazon stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Amazon Inc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Amazon in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Amazon's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Amazon options trading.
Pair Trading with Amazon
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Amazon position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Amazon will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Amazon Stock
| 0.85 | DBPD | Xtrackers ShortDAX | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | CXT | Carmat SA | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Amazon could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Amazon when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Amazon - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Amazon Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Amazon is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Amazon moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Amazon Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Amazon can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Amazon Correlation, Amazon Volatility and Amazon Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Amazon. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Amazon Stock analysis
When running Amazon's price analysis, check to measure Amazon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amazon is operating at the current time. Most of Amazon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amazon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amazon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amazon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Amazon technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.