Appian Backtesting

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APPN -- USA Stock  

Report: 13th of August 2020  

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Appian and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Appian over given investment horizon. Please continue to Appian Hype Analysis, Appian Correlation, Appian Valuation, Appian Volatility as well as analyze Appian Alpha and Beta and Appian Performance.

Appian 'What if' Analysis

No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 2 months and 31 days
If you would invest  0.00  in Appian on April 12, 2020 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Appian or generate 0.0% return on investment in Appian over 90 days. Appian is related to or competes with Evertec, F5 Networks, FireEye, BlackLine, Datasea, EVO Payments, and Bottomline. Appian Corporation provides low-code automation platform that enables organizations to develop various applications in t...

Appian Upside/Downside Indicators

Downside Deviation4.9
Information Ratio0.1061
Maximum Drawdown22.03
Value At Risk(6.69)
Potential Upside7.49

Appian Market Premium Indicators

Risk Adjusted Performance0.2672
Jensen Alpha0.6377
Total Risk Alpha0.2442
Sortino Ratio0.0973
Treynor Ratio(39.45)

Appian Backtested Returns

Appian appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Appian secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0972, which signifies that the company had 0.0972% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards foreseeing the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Appian, which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Appian risk adjusted performance of 0.2672, downside deviation of 4.9, and mean deviation of 3.52 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Appian holds a performance score of 6. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0161, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Appian's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Appian are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Appian is likely to outperform the market. Although it is vital to follow to Appian historical returns, it is good to be conservative about what you can do with the information regarding equity current trending patterns. The philosophy towards foreseeing future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing Appian technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.44% will be sustainable into the future. Please makes use of Appian coefficient of variation, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the Treynor Ratio and semi variance to make a quick decision on whether Appian price patterns will revert.
AdviceVolatility TrendExposureCorrelations
15 days auto-correlation(0.64) 
correlation synergy

Very good reverse predictability

Appian has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Appian time series from 12th of April 2020 to 27th of May 2020 and 27th of May 2020 to 11th of July 2020. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Appian price movement. The serial correlation of -0.64 indicates that roughly 64.0% of current Appian price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that Appian has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of Appian for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient-0.64
Spearman Rank Test-0.8
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance11.16

Appian lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 

Appian regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 

Appian Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 

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Appian Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Appian and Evertec. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Please continue to Appian Hype Analysis, Appian Correlation, Appian Valuation, Appian Volatility as well as analyze Appian Alpha and Beta and Appian Performance. Please also try Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Macroaxis is not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. All investments, including stocks, funds, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies, are speculative and involve substantial risk of loss. We encourage our investors to invest carefully. Much of our information is derived directly from data published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies which we believe are reliable, but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements or recommendations. Also, note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, and all investment decisions of an individual remain the responsibility of that individual. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or signals will result in profits or that they will not result in losses. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any investing they choose to do. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results. We make no representations or warranties that any investor will, or is likely to, achieve profits similar to those shown because hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. For more information please visit our terms and condition page