Aran Research (Israel) Market Value
| ARAN Stock | ILA 2,135 52.00 2.50% |
| Symbol | Aran |
Aran Research 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Aran Research's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Aran Research.
| 03/26/2024 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Aran Research on March 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Aran Research and or generate 0.0% return on investment in Aran Research over 30 days. Aran Research is related to or competes with Alony Hetz, Melisron, Shufersal, Israel Discount, and First International. Aran Research Development Ltd. engages in the product design and development, and equipment manufacturing businesses for... More
Aran Research Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Aran Research's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Aran Research and upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.0 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.48) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.83 |
Aran Research Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Aran Research's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Aran Research's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Aran Research historical prices to predict the future Aran Research's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0115 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0183 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.33) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.04) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aran Research's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aran Research Backtested Returns
We consider Aran Research very steady. Aran Research secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0701, which signifies that the company had a 0.0701% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Aran Research and, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Aran Research's mean deviation of 1.46, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0115 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.16%. Aran Research has a performance score of 5 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.15, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Aran Research are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Aran Research is likely to outperform the market. Aran Research right now shows a risk of 2.22%. Please confirm Aran Research market risk adjusted performance, semi deviation, coefficient of variation, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to decide if Aran Research will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.34 |
Poor reverse predictability
Aran Research and has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Aran Research time series from 26th of March 2024 to 10th of April 2024 and 10th of April 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Aran Research price movement. The serial correlation of -0.34 indicates that nearly 34.0% of current Aran Research price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.34 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.32 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2852.41 |
Aran Research lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Aran Research stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Aran Research's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Aran Research returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Aran Research has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Aran Research regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Aran Research stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Aran Research stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Aran Research stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Aran Research Lagged Returns
When evaluating Aran Research's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Aran Research stock have on its future price. Aran Research autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Aran Research autocorrelation shows the relationship between Aran Research stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Aran Research and.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Aran Research
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aran Research position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aran Research will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aran Research could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aran Research when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aran Research - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aran Research and to buy it.
The correlation of Aran Research is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aran Research moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aran Research moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aran Research can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Aran Research Correlation, Aran Research Volatility and Aran Research Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Aran Research. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Aran Stock analysis
When running Aran Research's price analysis, check to measure Aran Research's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aran Research is operating at the current time. Most of Aran Research's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aran Research's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aran Research's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aran Research to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Aran Research technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.