Baillie Gifford International Fund Market Value
| BGIFX Fund | USD 12.78 0.05 0.39% |
| Symbol | Baillie |
Baillie Gifford 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Baillie Gifford's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Baillie Gifford.
| 01/20/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Baillie Gifford on January 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Baillie Gifford International or generate 0.0% return on investment in Baillie Gifford over 90 days. Baillie Gifford is related to or competes with Eafe Pure, Long Term, Baillie Gifford, Baillie Gifford, Baillie Gifford, Baillie Gifford, and Baillie Gifford. Under normal circumstances, the fund invests at least 80 percent of its net assets in common stocks and other equity sec... More
Baillie Gifford Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Baillie Gifford's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Baillie Gifford International upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.9051 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.7 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.43) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.29 |
Baillie Gifford Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Baillie Gifford's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Baillie Gifford's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Baillie Gifford historical prices to predict the future Baillie Gifford's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0229 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.039 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.05) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Baillie Gifford's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Baillie Gifford Inte Backtested Returns
We consider Baillie Gifford very steady. Baillie Gifford Inte secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0202, which signifies that the fund had a 0.0202% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Baillie Gifford International, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Baillie Gifford's Mean Deviation of 0.6331, risk adjusted performance of 0.0229, and Downside Deviation of 0.9051 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0156%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.38, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Baillie Gifford are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Baillie Gifford is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.42 |
Modest reverse predictability
Baillie Gifford International has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Baillie Gifford time series from 20th of January 2024 to 5th of March 2024 and 5th of March 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Baillie Gifford Inte price movement. The serial correlation of -0.42 indicates that just about 42.0% of current Baillie Gifford price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.42 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.38 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.03 |
Baillie Gifford Inte lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Baillie Gifford mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Baillie Gifford's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Baillie Gifford returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Baillie Gifford has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Baillie Gifford regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Baillie Gifford mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Baillie Gifford mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Baillie Gifford mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Baillie Gifford Lagged Returns
When evaluating Baillie Gifford's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Baillie Gifford mutual fund have on its future price. Baillie Gifford autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Baillie Gifford autocorrelation shows the relationship between Baillie Gifford mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Baillie Gifford International.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Baillie Gifford
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Baillie Gifford position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Baillie Gifford will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Baillie Mutual Fund
| 0.82 | BGCWX | Baillie Gifford Eafe | PairCorr |
| 0.81 | BGEPX | Baillie Gifford Emerging | PairCorr |
| 0.8 | BGGSX | Equity Growth | PairCorr |
| 0.91 | RERFX | Europacific Growth | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Baillie Gifford could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Baillie Gifford when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Baillie Gifford - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Baillie Gifford International to buy it.
The correlation of Baillie Gifford is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Baillie Gifford moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Baillie Gifford Inte moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Baillie Gifford can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Baillie Gifford Correlation, Baillie Gifford Volatility and Baillie Gifford Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Baillie Gifford. Note that the Baillie Gifford Inte information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Baillie Gifford's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Baillie Gifford technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.