BP plc Backtesting

BP plc -- USA Stock  

USD 43.39  0.99  2.33%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of BP plc and determine expected loss or profit from investing in BP plc over given investment horizon. Check also BP plc Hype Analysis, BP plc Correlation, BP plc Valuation, BP plc Volatility as well as analyze BP plc Alpha and Beta and BP plc Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

BP plc 'What if' Analysis

December 23, 2017
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
January 22, 2018
If you would invest  0.00  in BP plc on December 23, 2017 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding BP plc or generate 0.0% return on investment in BP plc over 30 days. BP plc is related to or competes with Antero Resources, CJ Energy, Delek US, Diamond Offshore, and Ecopetrol S. It operates through three segments Upstream Downstream and Rosneft

BP plc Upside/Downside Indicators


BP plc Market Premium Indicators

BP plc lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 

BP plc regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 

BP plc Backtested Returns

Macroaxis considers BP plc not too risky given 1 month investment horizon. BP plc retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.195 which signifies that BP plc had 0.195% of return per unit of price deviation over the last 1 month. Our way in which we are foreseeing volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for BP plc which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please makes use of BP plc Standard Deviation of 1.15, Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.46) and Coefficient Of Variation of 378.56 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100 BP plc holds performance score of 12. The firm owns Beta (Systematic Risk) of -0.6239 which signifies that as returns on market increase, returns on owning BP plc are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, BP plc is likely to outperform the market.. Although it is extremely important to respect BP plc existing price patterns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity price patterns. The way in which we are foreseeing future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By evaluating BP plc technical indicators you can at this moment evaluate if the expected return of 0.2288% will be sustainable into the future. Please makes use of BP plc Information Ratio, and the relationship between Downside Deviation and Value At Risk to make a quick decision on weather BP plc current price history will revert.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation(0.38) 

Poor reverse predictability

BP plc has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between BP plc time series from December 23, 2017 to January 7, 2018 and January 7, 2018 to January 22, 2018. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of BP plc price movement. The serial correlation of -0.38 indicates that just about 38.0% of current BP plc price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that BP plc has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of BP plc for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient -0.38
Spearman Rank Test -0.4
Price Variance 0.18
Lagged Price Variance 0.33

BP plc Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 

BP plc Performance vs DOW

The median price of BP plc for the period between Sat, Dec 23, 2017 and Mon, Jan 22, 2018 is 42.87 with a coefficient of variation of 1.98. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 0.84, arithmetic mean of 42.42, and mean deviation of 0.69. The Stock received some media coverage during the period.
Price Growth (%)  
Breaking BP plc Hold Rating Reconfirmed at Jefferies Today T...12/27/2017
Bp Plc Lowered Netease Adr Stake By 7.11 Million The Unite G...01/22/2018