China Mengniu Dairy Stock Market Value
| CIADF Stock | USD 2.50 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | China |
China Mengniu 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to China Mengniu's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of China Mengniu.
| 05/05/2022 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in China Mengniu on May 5, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding China Mengniu Dairy or generate 0.0% return on investment in China Mengniu over 720 days. China Mengniu is related to or competes with Kellanova, Lancaster Colony, A2 Milk, Artisan Consumer, General Mills, and Campbell Soup. China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, produces and distributes dairy products in the Peopl... More
China Mengniu Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure China Mengniu's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess China Mengniu Dairy upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.36) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.1 |
China Mengniu Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for China Mengniu's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as China Mengniu's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use China Mengniu historical prices to predict the future China Mengniu's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.08) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.93) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Mengniu's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
China Mengniu Dairy Backtested Returns
China Mengniu Dairy secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.13, which signifies that the company had a -0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. China Mengniu Dairy exposes sixteen different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm China Mengniu's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.08), standard deviation of 0.3817, and Mean Deviation of 0.0925 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0612, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, China Mengniu's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding China Mengniu is expected to be smaller as well. China Mengniu Dairy has an expected return of -0.05%. Please make sure to confirm China Mengniu Dairy variance, skewness, day typical price, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and rate of daily change , to decide if China Mengniu Dairy performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.49 |
Average predictability
China Mengniu Dairy has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between China Mengniu time series from 5th of May 2022 to 30th of April 2023 and 30th of April 2023 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of China Mengniu Dairy price movement. The serial correlation of 0.49 indicates that about 49.0% of current China Mengniu price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.49 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.2 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.38 |
China Mengniu Dairy lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is China Mengniu pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting China Mengniu's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of China Mengniu returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that China Mengniu has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
China Mengniu regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If China Mengniu pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if China Mengniu pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in China Mengniu pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
China Mengniu Lagged Returns
When evaluating China Mengniu's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of China Mengniu pink sheet have on its future price. China Mengniu autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, China Mengniu autocorrelation shows the relationship between China Mengniu pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in China Mengniu Dairy.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with China Mengniu
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if China Mengniu position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in China Mengniu will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with China Pink Sheet
| 0.8 | NSRGF | Nestle SA | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | GPDNF | Danone SA | PairCorr |
Moving against China Pink Sheet
| 0.98 | PIFMF | PT Indofood Sukses | PairCorr |
| 0.92 | WMT | Walmart Financial Report 16th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.91 | ALSN | Allison Transmission Earnings Call Tomorrow | PairCorr |
| 0.9 | FIX | Comfort Systems USA Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.87 | MUSA | Murphy USA Financial Report 7th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to China Mengniu could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace China Mengniu when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back China Mengniu - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling China Mengniu Dairy to buy it.
The correlation of China Mengniu is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as China Mengniu moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if China Mengniu Dairy moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for China Mengniu can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out China Mengniu Correlation, China Mengniu Volatility and China Mengniu Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on China Mengniu. Note that the China Mengniu Dairy information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other China Mengniu's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Complementary Tools for China Pink Sheet analysis
When running China Mengniu's price analysis, check to measure China Mengniu's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Mengniu is operating at the current time. Most of China Mengniu's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Mengniu's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Mengniu's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Mengniu to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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China Mengniu technical pink sheet analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, pink sheet market cycles, or different charting patterns.