China Merchants Bank Stock Market Value
| CIHHF Stock | USD 4.01 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | China |
China Merchants 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to China Merchants' pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of China Merchants.
| 03/16/2024 |
| 04/15/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in China Merchants on March 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding China Merchants Bank or generate 0.0% return on investment in China Merchants over 30 days. China Merchants is related to or competes with First Citizens, and Western Alliance. China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services More
China Merchants Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure China Merchants' pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess China Merchants Bank upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | 0.1493 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.65 | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.57 |
China Merchants Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for China Merchants' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as China Merchants' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use China Merchants historical prices to predict the future China Merchants' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1241 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3409 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1446 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.31 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Merchants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
China Merchants Bank Backtested Returns
China Merchants appears to be slightly risky, given 3 months investment horizon. China Merchants Bank secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.19, which signifies that the company had a 0.19% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found eighteen technical indicators for China Merchants Bank, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of China Merchants' Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1241, standard deviation of 1.95, and Mean Deviation of 0.7591 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, China Merchants holds a performance score of 15. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.27, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, China Merchants' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding China Merchants is expected to be smaller as well. Please check China Merchants' potential upside, and the relationship between the information ratio and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether China Merchants' price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -92,233,720,368,547,760 |
Near perfect reversele predictability
China Merchants Bank has near perfect reversele predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between China Merchants time series from 16th of March 2024 to 31st of March 2024 and 31st of March 2024 to 15th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of China Merchants Bank price movement. The serial correlation of -9.223372036854776E16 indicates that 9.223372036854776E16% of current China Merchants price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -92233.7 T | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 1.0 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
China Merchants Bank lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is China Merchants pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting China Merchants' pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of China Merchants returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that China Merchants has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
China Merchants regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If China Merchants pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if China Merchants pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in China Merchants pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
China Merchants Lagged Returns
When evaluating China Merchants' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of China Merchants pink sheet have on its future price. China Merchants autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, China Merchants autocorrelation shows the relationship between China Merchants pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in China Merchants Bank.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards China Merchants in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, China Merchants' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from China Merchants options trading.
Pair Trading with China Merchants
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if China Merchants position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in China Merchants will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with China Pink Sheet
| 0.86 | CIHKY | China Merchants Bank | PairCorr |
Moving against China Pink Sheet
| 0.83 | PTAIF | PT Astra International | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | BBDC4 | Banco Bradesco SA | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | PTAIY | Astra International Tbk | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to China Merchants could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace China Merchants when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back China Merchants - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling China Merchants Bank to buy it.
The correlation of China Merchants is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as China Merchants moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if China Merchants Bank moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for China Merchants can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out China Merchants Correlation, China Merchants Volatility and China Merchants Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on China Merchants. Note that the China Merchants Bank information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other China Merchants' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Complementary Tools for China Pink Sheet analysis
When running China Merchants' price analysis, check to measure China Merchants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Merchants is operating at the current time. Most of China Merchants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Merchants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Merchants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Merchants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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China Merchants technical pink sheet analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, pink sheet market cycles, or different charting patterns.