Aquila Tax Free Fund Market Value
| COTYX Fund | USD 9.74 0.02 0.20% |
| Symbol | Aquila |
Aquila Tax-free 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Aquila Tax-free's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Aquila Tax-free.
| 03/24/2024 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Aquila Tax-free on March 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Aquila Tax Free Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Aquila Tax-free over 30 days. Aquila Tax-free is related to or competes with Aquila Churchill, Aquila Three, Aquila Three, Aquila Three, Aquila Three, Aquila Three, and Aquila Three. Under normal circumstances, at least 80 percent of the funds net assets will be invested in municipal obligations that p... More
Aquila Tax-free Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Aquila Tax-free's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Aquila Tax Free Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.76) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.8147 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.20) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.203 |
Aquila Tax-free Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Aquila Tax-free's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Aquila Tax-free's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Aquila Tax-free historical prices to predict the future Aquila Tax-free's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.10) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.52) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aquila Tax-free's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aquila Tax Free Backtested Returns
Aquila Tax Free secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0502, which signifies that the fund had a -0.0502% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Aquila Tax Free Fund exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Aquila Tax-free's Mean Deviation of 0.0827, risk adjusted performance of (0.10), and Standard Deviation of 0.1311 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0462, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Aquila Tax-free's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Aquila Tax-free is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.68 |
Good predictability
Aquila Tax Free Fund has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Aquila Tax-free time series from 24th of March 2024 to 8th of April 2024 and 8th of April 2024 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Aquila Tax Free price movement. The serial correlation of 0.68 indicates that around 68.0% of current Aquila Tax-free price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.68 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.75 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Aquila Tax Free lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Aquila Tax-free mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Aquila Tax-free's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Aquila Tax-free returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Aquila Tax-free has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Aquila Tax-free regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Aquila Tax-free mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Aquila Tax-free mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Aquila Tax-free mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Aquila Tax-free Lagged Returns
When evaluating Aquila Tax-free's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Aquila Tax-free mutual fund have on its future price. Aquila Tax-free autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Aquila Tax-free autocorrelation shows the relationship between Aquila Tax-free mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Aquila Tax Free Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Aquila Tax-free
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aquila Tax-free position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aquila Tax-free will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Aquila Mutual Fund
| 0.93 | CHKFX | Aquila Churchill Tax | PairCorr |
| 0.97 | CHKCX | Aquila Churchill Tax | PairCorr |
| 0.93 | CHKYX | Aquila Churchill Tax | PairCorr |
| 0.92 | CHTFX | Aquila Churchill Tax | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aquila Tax-free could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aquila Tax-free when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aquila Tax-free - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aquila Tax Free Fund to buy it.
The correlation of Aquila Tax-free is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aquila Tax-free moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aquila Tax Free moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aquila Tax-free can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Aquila Tax-free Correlation, Aquila Tax-free Volatility and Aquila Tax-free Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Aquila Tax-free. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Aquila Tax-free technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.