Ampol Limited Stock Market Value
| CTXAF Stock | USD 24.75 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | Ampol |
Ampol 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ampol's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ampol.
| 10/22/2023 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ampol on October 22, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ampol Limited or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ampol over 180 days. Ampol is related to or competes with Delek Energy, PBF Energy, HF Sinclair, Delek Logistics, Valero Energy, CVR Energy, and Phillips. Ampol Limited purchases, refines, distributes, and markets petroleum products in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and ... More
Ampol Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ampol's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ampol Limited upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.03 |
Ampol Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ampol's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ampol's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ampol historical prices to predict the future Ampol's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0214 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0093 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1184 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ampol's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ampol Limited Backtested Returns
We consider Ampol very steady. Ampol Limited secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0293, which signifies that the company had a 0.0293% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found sixteen technical indicators for Ampol Limited, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Ampol's Standard Deviation of 0.9917, mean deviation of 0.2369, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0214 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0297%. Ampol has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.16, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Ampol's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ampol is expected to be smaller as well. Ampol Limited right now shows a risk of 1.02%. Please confirm Ampol Limited variance, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the Maximum Drawdown and rate of daily change , to decide if Ampol Limited will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.63 |
Good predictability
Ampol Limited has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ampol time series from 22nd of October 2023 to 20th of January 2024 and 20th of January 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ampol Limited price movement. The serial correlation of 0.63 indicates that roughly 63.0% of current Ampol price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.63 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.97 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.24 |
Ampol Limited lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ampol pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ampol's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ampol returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ampol has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ampol regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ampol pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ampol pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ampol pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ampol Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ampol's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ampol pink sheet have on its future price. Ampol autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ampol autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ampol pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ampol Limited.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Ampol
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ampol position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ampol will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Ampol Pink Sheet
| 0.71 | NTOIF | Neste Oyj | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | NTOIY | Neste Oyj Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | SIRI | Sirius XM Holding Financial Report 25th of April 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.48 | PLUG | Plug Power Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.47 | LCID | Lucid Group Financial Report 13th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ampol could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ampol when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ampol - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ampol Limited to buy it.
The correlation of Ampol is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ampol moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ampol Limited moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ampol can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Ampol Correlation, Ampol Volatility and Ampol Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ampol. Note that the Ampol Limited information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ampol's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Complementary Tools for Ampol Pink Sheet analysis
When running Ampol's price analysis, check to measure Ampol's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ampol is operating at the current time. Most of Ampol's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ampol's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ampol's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ampol to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
| Global Correlations Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| Efficient Frontier Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market. |
Ampol technical pink sheet analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, pink sheet market cycles, or different charting patterns.