Fidelity Contra Backtesting

FCNKX -- USA Fund  

USD 13.55  0.02  0.15%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Fidelity Contra Fund Class K and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Fidelity Contra over given investment horizon. Additionally see Fidelity Contra Hype Analysis, Fidelity Contra Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, Fidelity Contra Volatility as well as analyze Fidelity Contra Alpha and Beta and Fidelity Contra Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Fidelity Contra 'What if' Analysis

September 7, 2019
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 3 months and 1 day
December 6, 2019
If you would invest  0.00  in Fidelity Contra on September 7, 2019 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Fidelity Contra Fund Class K or generate 0.0% return on investment in Fidelity Contra over 90 days. It invests in securities of companies whose value the advisor believes is not fully recognized by the public

Fidelity Contra Upside/Downside Indicators

Downside Deviation1.32
Information Ratio(0.012089)
Maximum Drawdown5.6
Value At Risk(1.86)
Potential Upside1.49

Fidelity Contra Market Premium Indicators

Risk Adjusted Performance0.0386
Jensen Alpha0.0615
Total Risk Alpha(0.06)
Sortino Ratio(0.009761)
Treynor Ratio(0.28)

Fidelity Contra Fund Backtested Returns

We consider Fidelity Contra not too volatile. Fidelity Contra Fund secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0562 which denotes the fund had 0.0562% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our philosophy towards predicting volatility of a fund is to use all available market data together with fund specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Fidelity Contra Fund Class K which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the entity. Please confirm Fidelity Contra Fund Mean Deviation of 0.7652, Coefficient Of Variation of 1762.92 and Downside Deviation of 1.32 to check if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.0595%. The organization shows Beta (market volatility) of -0.1789 which denotes to the fact that as returns on market increase, returns on owning Fidelity Contra are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, Fidelity Contra is likely to outperform the market. Although it is extremely important to respect Fidelity Contra Fund historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity current trending patterns. The philosophy towards predicting future performance of any fund is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By reviewing Fidelity Contra Fund technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.0595% will be sustainable into the future.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation(0.21) 
correlation synergy

Weak reverse predictability

Fidelity Contra Fund Class K has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Fidelity Contra time series from September 7, 2019 to October 22, 2019 and October 22, 2019 to December 6, 2019. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Fidelity Contra Fund price movement. The serial correlation of -0.21 indicates that over 21.0% of current Fidelity Contra price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that Fidelity Contra Fund Class K has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of Fidelity Contra for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient-0.21
Spearman Rank Test-0.29
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.06

Fidelity Contra Fund lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 

Fidelity Contra regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 

Fidelity Contra Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 

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Additionally see Fidelity Contra Hype Analysis, Fidelity Contra Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, Fidelity Contra Volatility as well as analyze Fidelity Contra Alpha and Beta and Fidelity Contra Performance. Please also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.