Fidelity Tax Free Bond Fund Market Value
| FTABX Fund | USD 10.94 0.01 0.09% |
| Symbol | Fidelity |
Fidelity Tax-free 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Fidelity Tax-free's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Fidelity Tax-free.
| 02/11/2024 |
| 05/11/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Fidelity Tax-free on February 11, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Fidelity Tax Free Bond or generate 0.0% return on investment in Fidelity Tax-free over 90 days. Fidelity Tax-free is related to or competes with Vanguard Long-term, Vanguard High-yield, Vanguard High-yield, Strategic Advisers, Vanguard Long-term, Franklin Federal, and Franklin Federal. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of assets in investment-grade municipal securities whose interest is exemp... More
Fidelity Tax-free Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Fidelity Tax-free's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Fidelity Tax Free Bond upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.2579 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.46) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.9132 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.28) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.2745 |
Fidelity Tax-free Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Fidelity Tax-free's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Fidelity Tax-free's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Fidelity Tax-free historical prices to predict the future Fidelity Tax-free's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.30) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.00) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fidelity Tax-free's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fidelity Tax Free Backtested Returns
We consider Fidelity Tax-free very steady. Fidelity Tax Free secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0093, which denotes the fund had a 0.0093% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Fidelity Tax Free Bond, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Fidelity Tax-free's Coefficient Of Variation of 2965.07, mean deviation of 0.1153, and Downside Deviation of 0.2579 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0016%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0043, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Fidelity Tax-free's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Fidelity Tax-free is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.56 |
Good reverse predictability
Fidelity Tax Free Bond has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Fidelity Tax-free time series from 11th of February 2024 to 27th of March 2024 and 27th of March 2024 to 11th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Fidelity Tax Free price movement. The serial correlation of -0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current Fidelity Tax-free price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.56 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.24 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Fidelity Tax Free lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Fidelity Tax-free mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Fidelity Tax-free's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Fidelity Tax-free returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Fidelity Tax-free has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Fidelity Tax-free regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Fidelity Tax-free mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Fidelity Tax-free mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Fidelity Tax-free mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Fidelity Tax-free Lagged Returns
When evaluating Fidelity Tax-free's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Fidelity Tax-free mutual fund have on its future price. Fidelity Tax-free autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Fidelity Tax-free autocorrelation shows the relationship between Fidelity Tax-free mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Fidelity Tax Free Bond.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Fidelity Tax-free Correlation, Fidelity Tax-free Volatility and Fidelity Tax-free Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Fidelity Tax-free. Note that the Fidelity Tax Free information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Fidelity Tax-free's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Fidelity Tax-free technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.