Galp Energia (Portugal) Market Value
| GALP Stock | EUR 16.11 0.06 0.37% |
| Symbol | Galp |
Galp Energia 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Galp Energia's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Galp Energia.
| 02/18/2024 |
| 04/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Galp Energia on February 18, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Galp Energia SGPS or generate 0.0% return on investment in Galp Energia over 60 days. Galp Energia is related to or competes with EDP Energias, Sonae SGPS, Banco Comercial, NOS SGPS, and Altri SGPS. Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. operates as integrated energy operator in Portugal and internationally More
Galp Energia Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Galp Energia's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Galp Energia SGPS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1346 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.34 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.58) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.56 |
Galp Energia Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Galp Energia's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Galp Energia's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Galp Energia historical prices to predict the future Galp Energia's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1165 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2194 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1283 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1561 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.22 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Galp Energia's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Galp Energia SGPS Backtested Returns
Galp Energia appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Galp Energia SGPS holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.18, which attests that the entity had a 0.18% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Galp Energia SGPS, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize Galp Energia's Downside Deviation of 1.14, risk adjusted performance of 0.1165, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 2.23 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Galp Energia holds a performance score of 13. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.1, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Galp Energia's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Galp Energia is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Galp Energia's coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, sortino ratio, as well as the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to make a quick decision on whether Galp Energia's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.33 |
Below average predictability
Galp Energia SGPS has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Galp Energia time series from 18th of February 2024 to 19th of March 2024 and 19th of March 2024 to 18th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Galp Energia SGPS price movement. The serial correlation of 0.33 indicates that nearly 33.0% of current Galp Energia price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.33 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.44 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.18 |
Galp Energia SGPS lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Galp Energia stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Galp Energia's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Galp Energia returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Galp Energia has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Galp Energia regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Galp Energia stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Galp Energia stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Galp Energia stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Galp Energia Lagged Returns
When evaluating Galp Energia's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Galp Energia stock have on its future price. Galp Energia autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Galp Energia autocorrelation shows the relationship between Galp Energia stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Galp Energia SGPS.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Complementary Tools for Galp Stock analysis
When running Galp Energia's price analysis, check to measure Galp Energia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Galp Energia is operating at the current time. Most of Galp Energia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Galp Energia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Galp Energia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Galp Energia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Galp Energia technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.