Guidepath Growth Allocation Fund Market Value
| GPSTX Fund | USD 16.38 0.03 0.18% |
| Symbol | Guidepath(r) |
Guidepath(r) Growth 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Guidepath(r) Growth's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Guidepath(r) Growth.
| 01/26/2024 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Guidepath(r) Growth on January 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Guidepath Growth Allocation or generate 0.0% return on investment in Guidepath(r) Growth over 90 days. Guidepath(r) Growth is related to or competes with American Funds, American Funds, Capital World, Capital World, and Capital World. The fund operates as a fund of funds, investing primarily in registered mutual funds, including exchange-traded funds More
Guidepath(r) Growth Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Guidepath(r) Growth's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Guidepath Growth Allocation upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.7866 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.34 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.24) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.25 |
Guidepath(r) Growth Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Guidepath(r) Growth's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Guidepath(r) Growth's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Guidepath(r) Growth historical prices to predict the future Guidepath(r) Growth's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.073 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.071 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guidepath(r) Growth's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Guidepath Growth All Backtested Returns
We consider Guidepath(r) Growth very steady. Guidepath Growth All holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0715, which attests that the entity had a 0.0715% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Guidepath Growth All, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please check out Guidepath(r) Growth's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.081, risk adjusted performance of 0.073, and Downside Deviation of 0.7866 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.055%. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.09, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Guidepath(r) Growth returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Guidepath(r) Growth is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | -0.55 |
Good reverse predictability
Guidepath Growth Allocation has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Guidepath(r) Growth time series from 26th of January 2024 to 11th of March 2024 and 11th of March 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Guidepath Growth All price movement. The serial correlation of -0.55 indicates that about 55.0% of current Guidepath(r) Growth price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.55 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.36 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.07 |
Guidepath Growth All lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Guidepath(r) Growth mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Guidepath(r) Growth's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Guidepath(r) Growth returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Guidepath(r) Growth has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Guidepath(r) Growth regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Guidepath(r) Growth mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Guidepath(r) Growth mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Guidepath(r) Growth mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Guidepath(r) Growth Lagged Returns
When evaluating Guidepath(r) Growth's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Guidepath(r) Growth mutual fund have on its future price. Guidepath(r) Growth autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Guidepath(r) Growth autocorrelation shows the relationship between Guidepath(r) Growth mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Guidepath Growth Allocation.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Guidepath(r) Growth in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Guidepath(r) Growth's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Guidepath(r) Growth options trading.
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Guidepath(r) Growth technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.