The Gabelli Focus Fund Market Value
| GWSCX Fund | USD 12.72 0.13 1.03% |
| Symbol | Gabelli |
Gabelli Focus 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gabelli Focus' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gabelli Focus.
| 02/19/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gabelli Focus on February 19, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding The Gabelli Focus or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gabelli Focus over 60 days. Gabelli Focus is related to or competes with The Gabelli, Gamco Global, Gamco International, The Gabelli, and Teton Westwood. Under normal circumstances, the fund will invest in a concentrated portfolio of twenty-five to thirty-five equity securi... More
Gabelli Focus Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gabelli Focus' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess The Gabelli Focus upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.9334 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.89 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.85) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.14 |
Gabelli Focus Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gabelli Focus' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gabelli Focus' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gabelli Focus historical prices to predict the future Gabelli Focus' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0204 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0144 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gabelli Focus' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gabelli Focus Backtested Returns
We consider Gabelli Focus very steady. Gabelli Focus holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0273, which attests that the entity had a 0.0273% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Gabelli Focus, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please check out Gabelli Focus' Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0244, risk adjusted performance of 0.0204, and Downside Deviation of 0.9334 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.022%. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.94, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Gabelli Focus returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Gabelli Focus is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | -0.23 |
Weak reverse predictability
The Gabelli Focus has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gabelli Focus time series from 19th of February 2024 to 20th of March 2024 and 20th of March 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gabelli Focus price movement. The serial correlation of -0.23 indicates that over 23.0% of current Gabelli Focus price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.23 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.65 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.05 |
Gabelli Focus lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gabelli Focus mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gabelli Focus' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gabelli Focus returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gabelli Focus has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gabelli Focus regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gabelli Focus mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gabelli Focus mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gabelli Focus mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gabelli Focus Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gabelli Focus' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gabelli Focus mutual fund have on its future price. Gabelli Focus autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gabelli Focus autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gabelli Focus mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in The Gabelli Focus.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Gabelli Focus technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.