Hodges Small Cap Fund Market Value
| HDPSX Fund | USD 21.12 0.24 1.15% |
| Symbol | Hodges |
Hodges Small 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Hodges Small's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Hodges Small.
| 11/30/2022 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Hodges Small on November 30, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Hodges Small Cap or generate 0.0% return on investment in Hodges Small over 510 days. Hodges Small is related to or competes with Hodges Fund, Amg Southernsun, Brown Advisory, Eventide Gilead, and Matthew 25. Under normal market conditions, the fund invests at least 80 percent of its net assets in the stocks of small capitaliza... More
Hodges Small Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Hodges Small's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Hodges Small Cap upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0692 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.58 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.86) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.86 |
Hodges Small Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Hodges Small's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Hodges Small's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Hodges Small historical prices to predict the future Hodges Small's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0946 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0384 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0164 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0638 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1011 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hodges Small's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hodges Small Cap Backtested Returns
We consider Hodges Small very steady. Hodges Small Cap holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.14, which attests that the entity had a 0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Hodges Small Cap, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please check out Hodges Small's Downside Deviation of 1.18, market risk adjusted performance of 0.1111, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0946 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.15%. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.49, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Hodges Small will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | 0.27 |
Poor predictability
Hodges Small Cap has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Hodges Small time series from 30th of November 2022 to 12th of August 2023 and 12th of August 2023 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Hodges Small Cap price movement. The serial correlation of 0.27 indicates that nearly 27.0% of current Hodges Small price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.27 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.25 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.79 |
Hodges Small Cap lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Hodges Small mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Hodges Small's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Hodges Small returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Hodges Small has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Hodges Small regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Hodges Small mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Hodges Small mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Hodges Small mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Hodges Small Lagged Returns
When evaluating Hodges Small's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Hodges Small mutual fund have on its future price. Hodges Small autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Hodges Small autocorrelation shows the relationship between Hodges Small mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Hodges Small Cap.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hodges Small in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hodges Small's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hodges Small options trading.
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Hodges Small technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.