First State (Ireland) Backtesting

IE0008368742 -- Ireland Fund  

USD 178.92  11.52  6.88%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of First State China Growth I Acc and determine expected loss or profit from investing in First State over given investment horizon. Please also check First State Hype Analysis, First State Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, First State Volatility as well as analyze First State Alpha and Beta and First State Performance.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

First State 'What if' Analysis

July 15, 2018
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
August 14, 2018
If you would invest  0.00  in First State on July 15, 2018 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First State China Growth I Acc or generate 0.0% return on investment in First State over 30 days. The fund invests primarily in securities issued by companies with either assets in, or revenues derived from the Peoples...

First State Upside/Downside Indicators


First State Market Premium Indicators

First State China Backtested Returns

We consider First State not too risky. First State China secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.036 which denotes First State China had 0.036% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards predicting volatility of a fund is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for First State China Growth I Acc which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the entity. Please confirm First State China to check if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.0976%. The organization shows Beta (market volatility) of 0.0 which denotes to the fact that the returns on MARKET and First State are completely uncorrelated. Although it is extremely important to respect First State China historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity current trending patterns. The philosophy towards predicting future performance of any fund is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By reviewing First State China technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.0976% will be sustainable into the future.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation 0.01 

Virtually no predictability

First State China Growth I Acc has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First State time series from July 15, 2018 to July 30, 2018 and July 30, 2018 to August 14, 2018. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First State China price movement. The serial correlation of 0.01 indicates that just 1.0% of current First State price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient 0.01
Spearman Rank Test -0.33
Price Variance 12.66
Lagged Price Variance 3.65

First State China lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 

First State regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 

First State Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices