Orchard A (Ireland) Backtesting

IE0032214995 -- Ireland Fund  

GBp 17.68  0.05  0.28%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Orchard A GBP Acc and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Orchard A over given investment horizon. Please also check Orchard A Hype Analysis, Orchard A Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, Orchard A Volatility as well as analyze Orchard A Alpha and Beta and Orchard A Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
SymbolX
Backtest

Orchard A 'What if' Analysis

December 19, 2018
0.00
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 2 months and 1 day
February 17, 2019
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Orchard A on December 19, 2018 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Orchard A GBP Acc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Orchard A over 60 days. The Fund will seek to achieve superior returns through equity investment whilst mitigating certain of the risks

Orchard A Upside/Downside Indicators

Downside Deviation44.31
Information Ratio0.1476
Maximum Drawdown9884.25
Value At Risk(4.40)
Potential Upside1.09
  

Orchard A Market Premium Indicators

Risk Adjusted Performance0.2749
Jensen Alpha224.4
Total Risk Alpha159.29
Sortino Ratio4.92
Treynor Ratio(2.41)

Orchard A GBP Backtested Returns

Orchard A is abnormally risky given 2 months investment horizon. Orchard A GBP maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e. Efficiency) of 0.1546 which implies the entity had 0.1546% of return per unit of risk over the last 2 months. Our philosophy towards forecasting volatility of a fund is to use Orchard A GBP market data together with company specific technical indicators. We found twenty-one different technical indicators which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 26.7181% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use Orchard A Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2749, Semi Deviation of 15.64 and Coefficient Of Variation of 677.17 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. The fund holds Beta of -90.3518 which implies as returns on market increase, returns on owning Orchard A are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, Orchard A is expected to significantly outperform it. Although it is essential to pay attention to Orchard A GBP current trending patterns, it is also good to be reasonable about what you can actually do with equity existing price patterns. Macroaxis philosophy towards forecasting future performance of any fund is to look not only at its past charts but also at the business as a whole, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. To evaluate if Orchard A GBP expected return of 26.7181 will be sustainable into the future, we have found twenty-one different technical indicators which can help you to check if the expected returns are sustainable.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation 0.06 
correlation synergy

Virtually no predictability

Orchard A GBP Acc has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Orchard A time series from December 19, 2018 to January 18, 2019 and January 18, 2019 to February 17, 2019. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Orchard A GBP price movement. The serial correlation of 0.06 indicates that barely 6.0% of current Orchard A price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.06
Spearman Rank Test0.67
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance192941.14

Orchard A GBP lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 
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Orchard A regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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Orchard A Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 
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Current Sentiment - IE0032214995

Orchard A GBP Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are indifferent in their judgment towards investing in Orchard A GBP Acc. What is your perspective on investing in Orchard A GBP Acc? Are you bullish or bearish?
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Please also check Orchard A Hype Analysis, Orchard A Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, Orchard A Volatility as well as analyze Orchard A Alpha and Beta and Orchard A Performance. Please also try Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of macroaxis ideas.
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