Vy Umbia Contrarian Fund Market Value
| ISCSX Fund | USD 14.37 0.18 1.27% |
| Symbol | ISCSX |
Vy Umbia 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vy Umbia's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vy Umbia.
| 03/25/2024 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vy Umbia on March 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vy Umbia Contrarian or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vy Umbia over 30 days. Vy Umbia is related to or competes with Morningstar Unconstrained, and SPACE. Under normal market conditions, the Portfolio invests at least 80 percent of its net assets in common stocks More
Vy Umbia Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vy Umbia's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vy Umbia Contrarian upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.7355 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.56 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.30) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.24 |
Vy Umbia Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vy Umbia's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vy Umbia's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vy Umbia historical prices to predict the future Vy Umbia's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0794 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0838 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vy Umbia's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vy Umbia Contrarian Backtested Returns
We consider Vy Umbia not too volatile. Vy Umbia Contrarian retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0981, which indicates the fund had a 0.0981% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Vy Umbia, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Vy Umbia's Mean Deviation of 0.5971, downside deviation of 0.7355, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0794 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0752%. The entity owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 1.0, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Vy Umbia returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Vy Umbia is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | 0.39 |
Below average predictability
Vy Umbia Contrarian has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vy Umbia time series from 25th of March 2024 to 9th of April 2024 and 9th of April 2024 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vy Umbia Contrarian price movement. The serial correlation of 0.39 indicates that just about 39.0% of current Vy Umbia price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.39 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.25 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.04 |
Vy Umbia Contrarian lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vy Umbia mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vy Umbia's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vy Umbia returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vy Umbia has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vy Umbia regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vy Umbia mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vy Umbia mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vy Umbia mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vy Umbia Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vy Umbia's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vy Umbia mutual fund have on its future price. Vy Umbia autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vy Umbia autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vy Umbia mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vy Umbia Contrarian.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Vy Umbia in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Vy Umbia's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Vy Umbia options trading.
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Vy Umbia technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.