Catalystmillburn Hedge Strategy Fund Market Value
| MBXIX Fund | USD 38.82 0.53 1.35% |
| Symbol | Catalyst/millburn |
Catalyst/millburn 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Catalyst/millburn's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Catalyst/millburn.
| 03/18/2024 |
| 04/17/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Catalyst/millburn on March 18, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Catalystmillburn Hedge Strategy or generate 0.0% return on investment in Catalyst/millburn over 30 days. Catalyst/millburn is related to or competes with Doubleline Emerging, Mid Cap, Calvert Emerging, Shelton Emerging, Transamerica Emerging, Eagle Mlp, and Pnc Emerging. The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing in a portfolio comprised of futures contracts, forward a... More
Catalyst/millburn Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Catalyst/millburn's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Catalystmillburn Hedge Strategy upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.8592 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0904 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.88 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.35) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.38 |
Catalyst/millburn Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Catalyst/millburn's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Catalyst/millburn's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Catalyst/millburn historical prices to predict the future Catalyst/millburn's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1054 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1091 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0591 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0786 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.34 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Catalyst/millburn's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Catalystmillburn Hedge Backtested Returns
We consider Catalyst/millburn not too volatile. Catalystmillburn Hedge secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.16, which signifies that the fund had a 0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Catalystmillburn Hedge Strategy, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Catalyst/millburn's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1054, mean deviation of 0.5861, and Downside Deviation of 0.8592 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.12%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0842, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Catalyst/millburn's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Catalyst/millburn is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.09 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Catalystmillburn Hedge Strategy has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Catalyst/millburn time series from 18th of March 2024 to 2nd of April 2024 and 2nd of April 2024 to 17th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Catalystmillburn Hedge price movement. The serial correlation of -0.09 indicates that less than 9.0% of current Catalyst/millburn price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.09 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.01 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.05 |
Catalystmillburn Hedge lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Catalyst/millburn mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Catalyst/millburn's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Catalyst/millburn returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Catalyst/millburn has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Catalyst/millburn regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Catalyst/millburn mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Catalyst/millburn mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Catalyst/millburn mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Catalyst/millburn Lagged Returns
When evaluating Catalyst/millburn's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Catalyst/millburn mutual fund have on its future price. Catalyst/millburn autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Catalyst/millburn autocorrelation shows the relationship between Catalyst/millburn mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Catalystmillburn Hedge Strategy.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Catalyst/millburn technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.