Nextage Therapeutics (Israel) Market Value
| MCTC Stock | ILA 71.00 3.00 4.41% |
| Symbol | Nextage |
Nextage Therapeutics 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Nextage Therapeutics' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Nextage Therapeutics.
| 04/25/2023 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Nextage Therapeutics on April 25, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Nextage Therapeutics or generate 0.0% return on investment in Nextage Therapeutics over 360 days. Nextage Therapeutics is related to or competes with Bezeq Israeli, and Compugen. Micromedic Technologies Ltd develops and commercializes in-vitro cancer diagnostic products and solutions worldwide More
Nextage Therapeutics Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Nextage Therapeutics' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Nextage Therapeutics upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.71 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1631 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 71.25 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.98) | |||
| Potential Upside | 19.66 |
Nextage Therapeutics Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Nextage Therapeutics' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Nextage Therapeutics' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Nextage Therapeutics historical prices to predict the future Nextage Therapeutics' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1145 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 1.69 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.7231 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.337 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.22) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nextage Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Nextage Therapeutics Backtested Returns
Nextage Therapeutics is not too volatile given 3 months investment horizon. Nextage Therapeutics has Sharpe Ratio of 0.15, which conveys that the firm had a 0.15% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We were able to interpolate twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.5% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use Nextage Therapeutics Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1145, mean deviation of 5.42, and Downside Deviation of 4.71 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. Nextage Therapeutics holds a performance score of 11 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.74, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Nextage Therapeutics are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Nextage Therapeutics is likely to outperform the market. Use Nextage Therapeutics potential upside, semi variance, and the relationship between the value at risk and downside variance , to analyze future returns on Nextage Therapeutics.
Auto-correlation | 0.04 |
Virtually no predictability
Nextage Therapeutics has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Nextage Therapeutics time series from 25th of April 2023 to 22nd of October 2023 and 22nd of October 2023 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Nextage Therapeutics price movement. The serial correlation of 0.04 indicates that only as little as 4.0% of current Nextage Therapeutics price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.04 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.39 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 77.35 |
Nextage Therapeutics lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Nextage Therapeutics stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Nextage Therapeutics' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Nextage Therapeutics returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Nextage Therapeutics has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Nextage Therapeutics regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Nextage Therapeutics stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Nextage Therapeutics stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Nextage Therapeutics stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Nextage Therapeutics Lagged Returns
When evaluating Nextage Therapeutics' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Nextage Therapeutics stock have on its future price. Nextage Therapeutics autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Nextage Therapeutics autocorrelation shows the relationship between Nextage Therapeutics stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Nextage Therapeutics.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Nextage Therapeutics in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Nextage Therapeutics' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Nextage Therapeutics options trading.
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Complementary Tools for Nextage Stock analysis
When running Nextage Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Nextage Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nextage Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Nextage Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nextage Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nextage Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nextage Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Nextage Therapeutics technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.