MercadoLibre (Mexico) Market Value
| MELIN Stock | MXN 23,580 270.01 1.13% |
| Symbol | MercadoLibre |
MercadoLibre 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to MercadoLibre's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of MercadoLibre.
| 04/30/2022 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in MercadoLibre on April 30, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding MercadoLibre or generate 0.0% return on investment in MercadoLibre over 720 days. MercadoLibre is related to or competes with Verizon Communications, Cognizant Technology, Ameriprise Financial, Micron Technology, Genworth Financial, Bank of Nova Scotia, and Deutsche Bank. MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Latin America More
MercadoLibre Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure MercadoLibre's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess MercadoLibre upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.14) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.73 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.97) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.72 |
MercadoLibre Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for MercadoLibre's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as MercadoLibre's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use MercadoLibre historical prices to predict the future MercadoLibre's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.21) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.45) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3825 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MercadoLibre's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MercadoLibre Backtested Returns
MercadoLibre has Sharpe Ratio of -0.18, which conveys that the firm had a -0.18% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. MercadoLibre exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify MercadoLibre's Standard Deviation of 2.18, mean deviation of 1.47, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06) to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.64, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning MercadoLibre are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, MercadoLibre is likely to outperform the market. MercadoLibre has an expected return of -0.38%. Please make sure to verify MercadoLibre treynor ratio, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the Kurtosis and day typical price , to decide if MercadoLibre performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.59 |
Modest predictability
MercadoLibre has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between MercadoLibre time series from 30th of April 2022 to 25th of April 2023 and 25th of April 2023 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of MercadoLibre price movement. The serial correlation of 0.59 indicates that roughly 59.0% of current MercadoLibre price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.59 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.46 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 9.3 M |
MercadoLibre lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is MercadoLibre stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting MercadoLibre's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of MercadoLibre returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that MercadoLibre has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
MercadoLibre regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If MercadoLibre stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if MercadoLibre stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in MercadoLibre stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
MercadoLibre Lagged Returns
When evaluating MercadoLibre's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of MercadoLibre stock have on its future price. MercadoLibre autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, MercadoLibre autocorrelation shows the relationship between MercadoLibre stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in MercadoLibre.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards MercadoLibre in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, MercadoLibre's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from MercadoLibre options trading.
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Complementary Tools for MercadoLibre Stock analysis
When running MercadoLibre's price analysis, check to measure MercadoLibre's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MercadoLibre is operating at the current time. Most of MercadoLibre's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MercadoLibre's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MercadoLibre's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MercadoLibre to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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