Metcash (Germany) Market Value
| MG9 Stock | EUR 2.32 0.02 0.87% |
| Symbol | Metcash |
Metcash 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Metcash's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Metcash.
| 05/04/2022 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Metcash on May 4, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Metcash Limited or generate 0.0% return on investment in Metcash over 720 days. Metcash is related to or competes with Amkor Technology, STMICROELECTRONICS, United Microelectronics, Kingdee International, Schweizer Electronic, Universal Electronics, and SMA Solar. Metcash Limited operates as a wholesale distribution and marketing company in Australia and New Zealand More
Metcash Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Metcash's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Metcash Limited upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0569 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.9 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.80) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.8 |
Metcash Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Metcash's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Metcash's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Metcash historical prices to predict the future Metcash's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0897 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1428 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 7.0E-4 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0366 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (7.86) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Metcash's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Metcash Limited Backtested Returns
We consider Metcash slightly risky. Metcash Limited has Sharpe Ratio of 0.14, which conveys that the firm had a 0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Metcash, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Metcash's Mean Deviation of 0.7781, risk adjusted performance of 0.0897, and Downside Deviation of 1.7 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.15%. Metcash has a performance score of 10 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.018, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Metcash are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Metcash is likely to outperform the market. Metcash Limited right now secures a risk of 1.09%. Please verify Metcash Limited maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if Metcash Limited will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | -0.37 |
Poor reverse predictability
Metcash Limited has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Metcash time series from 4th of May 2022 to 29th of April 2023 and 29th of April 2023 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Metcash Limited price movement. The serial correlation of -0.37 indicates that just about 37.0% of current Metcash price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.37 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.2 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Metcash Limited lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Metcash stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Metcash's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Metcash returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Metcash has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Metcash regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Metcash stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Metcash stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Metcash stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Metcash Lagged Returns
When evaluating Metcash's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Metcash stock have on its future price. Metcash autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Metcash autocorrelation shows the relationship between Metcash stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Metcash Limited.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Metcash in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Metcash's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Metcash options trading.
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Complementary Tools for Metcash Stock analysis
When running Metcash's price analysis, check to measure Metcash's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Metcash is operating at the current time. Most of Metcash's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Metcash's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Metcash's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Metcash to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Metcash technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.