National Bank (Germany) Market Value
| NB9 Stock | EUR 29.80 0.80 2.61% |
| Symbol | National |
National Bank 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to National Bank's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of National Bank.
| 03/20/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in National Bank on March 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding National Bank Holdings or generate 0.0% return on investment in National Bank over 30 days. National Bank is related to or competes with Superior Plus, Origin Agritech, SIVERS SEMICONDUCTORS, NorAm Drilling, and Identiv. National Bank Holdings Corporation operates as the bank holding company for NBH Bank, N.A More
National Bank Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure National Bank's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess National Bank Holdings upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.1 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.01) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.31 |
National Bank Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for National Bank's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as National Bank's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use National Bank historical prices to predict the future National Bank's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.23) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0764 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Bank Holdings Backtested Returns
National Bank Holdings has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0207, which conveys that the firm had a -0.0207% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. National Bank exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify National Bank's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.01), standard deviation of 1.92, and Mean Deviation of 1.46 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.62, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning National Bank are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, National Bank is likely to outperform the market. National Bank Holdings has an expected return of -0.0406%. Please make sure to verify National Bank Holdings skewness, daily balance of power, and the relationship between the potential upside and kurtosis , to decide if National Bank Holdings performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.11 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
National Bank Holdings has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between National Bank time series from 20th of March 2024 to 4th of April 2024 and 4th of April 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of National Bank Holdings price movement. The serial correlation of -0.11 indicates that less than 11.0% of current National Bank price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.11 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.45 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.37 |
National Bank Holdings lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is National Bank stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting National Bank's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of National Bank returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that National Bank has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
National Bank regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If National Bank stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if National Bank stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in National Bank stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
National Bank Lagged Returns
When evaluating National Bank's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of National Bank stock have on its future price. National Bank autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, National Bank autocorrelation shows the relationship between National Bank stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in National Bank Holdings.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards National Bank in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, National Bank's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from National Bank options trading.
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Complementary Tools for National Stock analysis
When running National Bank's price analysis, check to measure National Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Bank is operating at the current time. Most of National Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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National Bank technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.