Polen Global Growth Fund Market Value
| PGIIX Fund | USD 25.40 0.32 1.28% |
| Symbol | Polen |
Polen Global 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Polen Global's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Polen Global.
| 03/26/2024 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Polen Global on March 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Polen Global Growth or generate 0.0% return on investment in Polen Global over 30 days. Polen Global is related to or competes with Marsico 21st, Northern Small, Aberdeen Select, HUMANA, Barloworld, Morningstar Unconstrained, and High Yield. The fund typically invests in a focused portfolio of approximately 25 to 40 common stocks of large capitalization compan... More
Polen Global Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Polen Global's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Polen Global Growth upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.9714 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.26 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.45) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.38 |
Polen Global Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Polen Global's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Polen Global's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Polen Global historical prices to predict the future Polen Global's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.024 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.10) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0203 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Polen Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Polen Global Growth Backtested Returns
We consider Polen Global very steady. Polen Global Growth maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0094, which implies the entity had a 0.0094% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Polen Global Growth, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please check Polen Global's Semi Deviation of 0.8917, risk adjusted performance of 0.024, and Coefficient Of Variation of 2955.87 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0084%. The fund holds a Beta of 0.97, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Polen Global returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Polen Global is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | 0.68 |
Good predictability
Polen Global Growth has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Polen Global time series from 26th of March 2024 to 10th of April 2024 and 10th of April 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Polen Global Growth price movement. The serial correlation of 0.68 indicates that around 68.0% of current Polen Global price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.68 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.35 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.16 |
Polen Global Growth lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Polen Global mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Polen Global's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Polen Global returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Polen Global has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Polen Global regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Polen Global mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Polen Global mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Polen Global mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Polen Global Lagged Returns
When evaluating Polen Global's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Polen Global mutual fund have on its future price. Polen Global autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Polen Global autocorrelation shows the relationship between Polen Global mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Polen Global Growth.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
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Align your risk with return expectations
Check out Polen Global Correlation, Polen Global Volatility and Polen Global Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Polen Global. You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Polen Global technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.