Bond Market Index Fund Market Value
| PNIIX Fund | USD 8.23 0.02 0.24% |
| Symbol | Bond |
Bond Market 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Bond Market's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Bond Market.
| 05/01/2023 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Bond Market on May 1, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Bond Market Index or generate 0.0% return on investment in Bond Market over 360 days. Bond Market is related to or competes with Vanguard Total, Vanguard Total, Vanguard Total, Bond Fund, Bond Fund, and American Funds. Under normal circumstances, the fund invests at least 80 percent of its net assets, plus any borrowings for investment p... More
Bond Market Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Bond Market's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Bond Market Index upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.32) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.56 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.71) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.4773 |
Bond Market Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Bond Market's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Bond Market's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Bond Market historical prices to predict the future Bond Market's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.13) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bond Market's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Bond Market Index Backtested Returns
Bond Market Index secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0819, which signifies that the fund had a -0.0819% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Bond Market Index exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Bond Market's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.05), standard deviation of 0.3673, and Mean Deviation of 0.287 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.25, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Bond Market's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Bond Market is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.24 |
Weak reverse predictability
Bond Market Index has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Bond Market time series from 1st of May 2023 to 28th of October 2023 and 28th of October 2023 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Bond Market Index price movement. The serial correlation of -0.24 indicates that over 24.0% of current Bond Market price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.24 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.33 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
Bond Market Index lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Bond Market mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Bond Market's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Bond Market returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Bond Market has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Bond Market regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Bond Market mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Bond Market mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Bond Market mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Bond Market Lagged Returns
When evaluating Bond Market's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Bond Market mutual fund have on its future price. Bond Market autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Bond Market autocorrelation shows the relationship between Bond Market mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Bond Market Index.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Bond Market in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Bond Market's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Bond Market options trading.
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Bond Market technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.