Intermediate Bond Fund Market Value
| RBOFX Fund | USD 12.21 0.01 0.08% |
| Symbol | Intermediate |
Intermediate Bond 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Intermediate Bond's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Intermediate Bond.
| 10/31/2022 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Intermediate Bond on October 31, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Intermediate Bond Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Intermediate Bond over 540 days. Intermediate Bond is related to or competes with Income Fund, New World, American Mutual, American Mutual, American Funds, American Funds, and New Economy. The fund maintains a portfolio of bonds, other debt securities and money market instruments having a dollar-weighted ave... More
Intermediate Bond Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Intermediate Bond's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Intermediate Bond Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.37) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.7 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.40) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.4042 |
Intermediate Bond Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Intermediate Bond's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Intermediate Bond's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Intermediate Bond historical prices to predict the future Intermediate Bond's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.39) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Intermediate Bond's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intermediate Bond Backtested Returns
Intermediate Bond holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0559, which attests that the entity had a -0.0559% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Intermediate Bond exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Intermediate Bond's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.38), risk adjusted performance of (0.05), and Standard Deviation of 0.2895 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0723, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Intermediate Bond's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Intermediate Bond is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.53 |
Modest predictability
Intermediate Bond Fund has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Intermediate Bond time series from 31st of October 2022 to 28th of July 2023 and 28th of July 2023 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Intermediate Bond price movement. The serial correlation of 0.53 indicates that about 53.0% of current Intermediate Bond price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.53 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.39 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.05 |
Intermediate Bond lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Intermediate Bond mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Intermediate Bond's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Intermediate Bond returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Intermediate Bond has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Intermediate Bond regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Intermediate Bond mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Intermediate Bond mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Intermediate Bond mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Intermediate Bond Lagged Returns
When evaluating Intermediate Bond's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Intermediate Bond mutual fund have on its future price. Intermediate Bond autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Intermediate Bond autocorrelation shows the relationship between Intermediate Bond mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Intermediate Bond Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Intermediate Bond in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Intermediate Bond's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Intermediate Bond options trading.
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Check out Intermediate Bond Correlation, Intermediate Bond Volatility and Intermediate Bond Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Intermediate Bond. Note that the Intermediate Bond information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Intermediate Bond's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Intermediate Bond technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.