Royce Premier Fund Market Value
| RYPRX Fund | USD 11.14 0.04 0.36% |
| Symbol | Royce |
Royce Premier 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Royce Premier's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Royce Premier.
| 03/20/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Royce Premier on March 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Royce Premier Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Royce Premier over 30 days. Royce Premier is related to or competes with Royce Total, Growth Fund, and Aberdeen Select. The funds investment adviser invests the funds assets in a limited number of equity securities of primarily small-cap co... More
Royce Premier Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Royce Premier's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Royce Premier Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.86 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.63) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.69 |
Royce Premier Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Royce Premier's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Royce Premier's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Royce Premier historical prices to predict the future Royce Premier's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0138 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0043 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Royce Premier's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Royce Premier Backtested Returns
Royce Premier maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.0283, which implies the entity had a -0.0283% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Royce Premier exposes twenty-seven different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check Royce Premier's Semi Deviation of 1.08, coefficient of variation of 6460.47, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0138 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The fund holds a Beta of 1.52, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Royce Premier will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | -0.01 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Royce Premier Fund has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Royce Premier time series from 20th of March 2024 to 4th of April 2024 and 4th of April 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Royce Premier price movement. The serial correlation of -0.01 indicates that just 1.0% of current Royce Premier price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.01 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.15 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.08 |
Royce Premier lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Royce Premier mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Royce Premier's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Royce Premier returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Royce Premier has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Royce Premier regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Royce Premier mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Royce Premier mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Royce Premier mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Royce Premier Lagged Returns
When evaluating Royce Premier's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Royce Premier mutual fund have on its future price. Royce Premier autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Royce Premier autocorrelation shows the relationship between Royce Premier mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Royce Premier Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Royce Premier Correlation, Royce Premier Volatility and Royce Premier Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Royce Premier. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Royce Premier technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.