Deutsche Managed Municipal Fund Market Value
| SMLCX Fund | USD 8.03 0.02 0.25% |
| Symbol | Deutsche |
Deutsche Managed 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Deutsche Managed's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Deutsche Managed.
| 03/26/2024 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Deutsche Managed on March 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Deutsche Managed Municipal or generate 0.0% return on investment in Deutsche Managed over 30 days. Deutsche Managed is related to or competes with Vanguard Long, Vanguard High-yield, and Strategic Advisers. The fund invests at least 80 percent of net assets, plus the amount of any borrowings for investment purposes, in securi... More
Deutsche Managed Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Deutsche Managed's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Deutsche Managed Municipal upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.42) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.35 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.37) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.3731 |
Deutsche Managed Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Deutsche Managed's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Deutsche Managed's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Deutsche Managed historical prices to predict the future Deutsche Managed's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.7916 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Deutsche Managed's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Deutsche Managed Mun Backtested Returns
We consider Deutsche Managed very steady. Deutsche Managed Mun secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0103, which denotes the fund had a 0.0103% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-two technical indicators for Deutsche Managed Municipal, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Deutsche Managed's Mean Deviation of 0.1365, standard deviation of 0.2176, and Variance of 0.0474 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0023%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0171, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Deutsche Managed are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Deutsche Managed is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.71 |
Good predictability
Deutsche Managed Municipal has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Deutsche Managed time series from 26th of March 2024 to 10th of April 2024 and 10th of April 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Deutsche Managed Mun price movement. The serial correlation of 0.71 indicates that around 71.0% of current Deutsche Managed price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.71 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.53 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Deutsche Managed Mun lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Deutsche Managed mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Deutsche Managed's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Deutsche Managed returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Deutsche Managed has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Deutsche Managed regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Deutsche Managed mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Deutsche Managed mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Deutsche Managed mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Deutsche Managed Lagged Returns
When evaluating Deutsche Managed's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Deutsche Managed mutual fund have on its future price. Deutsche Managed autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Deutsche Managed autocorrelation shows the relationship between Deutsche Managed mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Deutsche Managed Municipal.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Deutsche Managed in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Deutsche Managed's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Deutsche Managed options trading.
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Check out Deutsche Managed Correlation, Deutsche Managed Volatility and Deutsche Managed Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Deutsche Managed. Note that the Deutsche Managed Mun information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Deutsche Managed's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Deutsche Managed technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.